232
FXUS61 KALY 280530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With a cold front moving through the region, any
lingering showers will end early this morning, allowing less humid
air to move into the region.  However, an approaching upper level
disturbance will return the threat for scattered showers to the
region again for late today, with a chance continuing into Wednesday
as well. Behind this departing system, comfortable and dry weather
is expected for much of the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 117 AM EDT...Surface cold front is finally moving across
the region from west to east. As seen in surface observations
across western and central NY, the front will allow winds to
switch from the south to the west-southwest and allow for drier
air and lowering dewpoints to move into the region.

Just ahead of the frontal boundary, one more band of convection
is still occurring, which is now impacting the central
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. This activity has been weakening
over the last few hours thanks to diminishing instability with
the loss of daytime heating and thunder is becoming more
isolated within this line. No threat for any strong winds or
flooding downpours with this activity, as its fairly brief and
not very tall. This line will continue to move eastward ahead of
the approaching boundary, but will continue to weaken and fall
apart. Can`t rule out a shower over the next few hours for the
Capital and Saratoga Regions, but any additional rainfall won`t
amount to very much.

While skies are mostly cloudy for much of the region, there
should be more clearing behind the front for the late night
hours. With winds still fairly weak and moisture levels high due
to the recent rainfall, some patchy fog could form in areas that
see clearing before the drier air moves into the region.
Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy towards daybreak
Tuesday for much of the area.

Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the
coolest temps in western areas where the front will pass through
first.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Early stratus clouds from the overnight erodes away tomorrow
morning giving us a period of morning sunshine. With the main
parent low positioned in Quebec, the attendant parent trough
and sfc cold front will be tracking through western/central NY
through the morning with a warm air mass still place across
eastern NY and western New England. Guidance suggests 850hPa
isotherms will be able to reach +9C to +11C which combined with
morning insolation and deepening boundary layer mixing should
support afternoon temperatures reaching into well into the 70s
with even low 80s in the mid-Hudson Valley and parts of NW CT.
The sfc pressure gradient ahead of our approaching boundary
remains tight thanks to our 990hPa low positioned in southern
Canada so southwest to westerly winds should become breezy
through the afternoon with gusts reaching up to 25-30kts. Dew
points remain elevated as well in the upper 50s so morning sun
and the slightly humid air mass should contribute to generating
some weak instability in the afternoon (500 - 1000J/kg). Once
the main front and trough axis arrives from west to east,
expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop and
spread eastward. Not expecting severe weather thanks to the
limited instability with thunderstorm activity diminishing after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

The upper level trough axis lingering overhead through Tuesday
night will support upslope driven showers and clouds along the
west facing slopes of the Taconics, southern Greens, northern
Catskills and western Adirondacks. Clearing skies in the valley
along with the incoming cooler and drier air mass behind the
front will support overnight lows dropping into the 50s with
even upper 40s in the higher terrain of the southern Greens and
southern Adirondacks.

Moist, cyclonic flow continues into Wednesday as upper level
troughing remains overhead. Westerly winds become northerly
through the afternoon as the trough axis and secondary cold air
front push through the region with scattered diurnally driven
showers developing thanks to the incoming sharp wind shift
boundary and cool pool moving in aloft (500hPa isotherms range -18C
to -19C). The better shower coverage looks displaced to our
south in PA/NJ where a more potent shortwave tracks through at
the base of parent trough. Areas south of I-90 could see a few
thunderstorms develop as mid-level lapse rates ahead of the
boundary steepen to 6.5 - 7C/km which looks to induce sufficient
instability before the boundary arrives in the afternoon.
Otherwise, temperatures trend cooler relative to the past few
days with daytime highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s
and much lower dew points in the low 50s to even 40s making it
feel much more comfortable. Overall lower dew points will likely
limit instability that can develop so severe weather is not
expected.

Clearing skies ensue Wednesday night with temperatures turning
even cooler in comparison to the previous few nights. Overnight
lows drop into the low to mid 40s in the higher terrain and hill
towns with low 50s in the valley thanks to radiational cooling
effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures remain cool through Thursday as northerly winds
behind the trough axis/secondary cold front boundary advect in a
cool and very dry air mass. The cold front from Wednesday looks
to stall somewhere in the mid-Atlantic and as a potent
shortwave from the Ohio Valley amplifies and digs eastward,
additional showers look to develop along the boundary. Current
trends keep the boundary far enough south that additional
showers that develop in response to the incoming shortwave also
remain to our south. However, given uncertainty we continue to
show low-end chance POPs but the forecast may trend drier if
the boundary stays to our south. Otherwise, northerly winds
Thursday turn a bit breezy in the wake of the boundary. Daytime
highs likely struggle to rise out of the 60s with low 70s in the
valley. Clearing skies overnight will promote radiational
cooling and given the very low dew points, we can expect an even
cooler night with lows in the 40s throughout the region. Some
upper 30s cannot be ruled out in the highest peaks of the
southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.

Upper level ridging and strong subsidence/sfc high pressure builds
back into the Northeast Friday through the first weekend of
June giving us a stretch of very pleasant, dry and increasingly
warm weather. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s Friday and
Saturday trend back to the upper 70s and low 80s by Sunday.
Overnight lows Friday night remains quite cool thanks to
favorable radiational cooling yielding another night with
widespread 40s. Nighttime lows trend milder through the weekend
thanks to the incoming ridging and westerly return flow
developing. Dew points will remain low through the weekend so
humidity levels will remain low/comfortable for those who have
any outdoor activities planned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR cigs at 500-1500 ft with largely
VFR vsbys are expected to continue through much of the overnight
period. Intermittent reduced vsbys from mist are possible through
12Z Tue, most likely at GFL/POU and particularly toward daybreak as
more robust clearing begins. VFR cigs/vsbys return to ALB/GFL/POU by
12-14Z Tue as sct cloud bases lift to 2-4 kft, and to PSF later in
the morning by 16Z Tue once bkn cigs give way to clearer skies.
Scattered showers return in the afternoon and evening to
ALB/GFL/PSF, but are not expected to affect flying conditions.
Otherwise, sct cloud coverage at 3-5 kft is expected to persist
through the remainder of the period.

South to southwest winds at 10 kt or less tonight will increase out
of the southwest to 10-15 kt by 12-15Z Tue. Gusts to 20 kt are
expected across the region from late morning through the afternoon,
before winds shift out of the west by 22-24Z Tue and speeds diminish
to less than 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Picard