346
FXUS61 KALY 241740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny, dry, breezy and warm weather
today and clear and cool weather tonight. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the weekend as a disturbance
crosses the region. A stronger low pressure system is expected
to bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers
lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunny across the region and mixing potential will help
temperatures reach forecasted highs. The winds will continue to
be gusty through the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
High pressure will slowly build into the region through tonight.
After a cool start to the morning along with some patchy fog
across Dutchess and Litchfield counties, temperatures will
moderate well with highs reaching the 70s across most areas with
some lower to mid-80s along the Hudson Valley and into
Litchfield County, CT (around 5 to 10 degrees above average).
Gusty west to northwesterly winds are likely to develop during
the afternoon as a dry cold front crosses the area. Some gusts
over 30 mph are possible from the Mohawk Valley to the Capital
District and Berkshires. This should aid in mixing out dewpoints
so blended in the NBM10% for the afternoon hours and for
tonight.

Precipitable water values lower further tonight (under 0.50 of
an inch) as the high from Canada builds overhead. Ideal
radiational cooling conditions are likely again tonight after
winds decouple and could result in lows reaching similar values
to early this morning. Have blended in the colder guidance for
lows including the NBM10% and MET/MAV MOS. This could result in
lows generally in the 40s to lower 50s with some pockets of
upper 30s possible across portions of the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much of Saturday looks nice as the high shifts to our east with
a mostly sunny sky. There will be much less wind compared to
Friday. Highs will once again reach the lower 70s to lower 80s.
An upper- level shortwave and increase in moisture (precipitable
water values increasing to over 1 inch) and some weak
instability should result in at least some scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning later in the afternoon or early in the
evening for areas west of the Hudson Valley and shifting
eastward during the evening and overnight hours. Current
expectations are for this activity to remain sub-severe,
especially if activity doesn`t pass through until near or after
sunset. Lows Saturday night should only fall back into the 50s
to around 60 with some clouds around throughout the night.

Despite some weak ridging on Sunday, enough instability may
develop for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day. The better instability looks to be located
for areas south and east of Albany but a shower or storm could
develop anywhere. Highs in the lower 70s to lower to mid-80s are
expected on Sunday. Any storms will dissipate after the loss of
daytime heating Sunday evening. A low pressure system
approaches from the Upper Great Lakes toward daybreak Monday but
most of the shower activity should stay just to our south and
west through the night. Lows will fall back to the mid-50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main focus in the long term is potential for widespread rainfall
(possibly heavy) on Monday. A fairly deep cyclone for late May
(MSLP anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) is forecast to track NE from
the upper Great Lakes Mon morning to near the Ontario/Quebec Mon
evening. Southerly winds will increase across our area ahead of
and along a complex surface front(s) that will progress
eastward through Mon night. While it is unclear whether we will
get into a true warm sector, deep layer moisture will steadily
increase with PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV.
Strong forcing from the surface front and an upper level short
wave supports widespread rainfall. ECMWF ensemble probs for > 2"
rain are low < 20%, but a solid 1-2" may occur especially in
favored southerly upslope areas. Main question is how much
convective rainfall occurs, which is dependent on the if we can
get into a warm sector. If this does happen, there would be more
of a flash flood threat. At this time it appears less likely,
with more of an occluded frontal passage. Will continue to
monitor trends.

Rainfall becomes more showery on Tue, as the main front and
cyclone in Canada shift east of our region. However, with a
broad upper level trough in place, an additional short wave
disturbance is expected to move through. This will result in
scattered to numerous showers. Will continue to mention slight
chance thunder during diurnally favored times, but overall
potential looks low.

Wed into Thu, guidance is showing a possible upper level cut-off
upper low developing and tracking near/over the Northeast.
Surface cyclogenesis along/near the coast would be possible,
resembling more of a cool-season storm system. This would result
in a widespread rainfall with below normal temperatures, and
could be something to monitor if this pattern does evolve.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 1800 UTC Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon through tonight.  A few mid level or cumulus clouds will
be around, as we well as a few-sct cirrus prior to sunset.  The
skies will be mainly clear overnight with the winds becoming light
to calm with the sfc high building in from the Great Lakes Region.

Some patchy shallow radiational mist may occur at KGFL briefly.  We
placed some MVFR mist there between 0700-1100 UTC/SAT, but with a
well-mixed boundary layer we should be VFR at the other TAF sites.
VFR conditions will continue in the late morning through the
afternoon with just a few cirrus around.

The winds will be west to northwest 10-18 KT with some gusts 20-30
KT with the higher gusts at KALB/KPSF this afternoon.  The winds
will decrease to 10 KT or less around 23Z/FRI and will become light
and variable in direction at 4 KT or less around midnight.  The
winds will be light from the south/southwest at 4-7 KT in the late
morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...RA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...NAS/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula