358
FXUS64 KAMA 270838
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
338 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light southeast breezes today will start to bring low level moisture
back into the Panhandles.  There may be some surface convergence
across the southwest Texas Panhandle as a surface trough/developing
dryline pushes into the southwest Texas Panhandle.  This convergence
combined with strong daytime heating and increasing moisture could
help produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the south-central
Texas Panhandle late this afternoon.  But for now, confidence is not
there to add any rain to the forecast for this scenario.  Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Raton Mesa to
the west of the Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon and early
this evening.  The westerly flow aloft along with an upper level
short wave trough will help to bring this convection across the
Oklahoma Panhandle tonight. As this short wave moves across the
Panhandles overnight, it will encounter better moisture across the
eastern Panhandles and it may help to spark additional showers and
thunderstorms there late tonight.

As we get into Tuesday there are a couple of different scenarios
that could happen. One, a cold front moves southward through the
Panhandles early Tuesday morning behind a much stronger short wave
trough moving through the Great Lakes.  If this cold front would
happen to move through, then the better chance of convection could
be to our west and south as the Panhandles could get overspread by a
cool and stable air mass.  Any convection that would try to move
into our area from the mountains late Tuesday afternoon would tend
to die as they moved into the more stable air mass over the
Panhandles.  The second scenario, that is looking a little more
likely, is one where an outflow boundary may move west across the
Panhandles Tuesday morning from convection that develops over north
Texas/southwest Oklahoma just after sunrise.  This outflow boundary
would tend to wash out during the afternoon across the western
Panhandles and the air mass over the area would have a chance to
recover enough to produce another round of convection Tuesday
afternoon.  More convection would then likely move this way from the
mountains as well and showers and thunderstorm chances would
continue into Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

In the midst of all the days with better rain chances throughout
the week lies Wednesday, a day that`s consistently been tough to
get a read on. The day may start off wet as lingering overnight
convection from Tuesday could still be hanging around in some
spots. Models still agree abundant deep layer moisture will be in
our favor through the day, especially with high PWAT values
already in place and additional theta-e advection on the way.
However, models also agree that thick low to mid-level cloud decks
will keep us much cooler, with highs topping out in the mid to
upper 70s. While this would act to increase capping and limit
destabilization potential, showers and general thunderstorms will
still be possible as a minor shortwave perturbation impinges on
upper level ridging atop the Plains later Wed afternoon and
evening. The ECMWF is still on the bullish side for convective
coverage and intensity, but overall model agreement for
afternoon-evening showers/storms resides across the
northwestern Panhandles in closer proximity to the shortwave,
gradually shifting east-southeastward overnight (30-50% POPs).

In contrast, Thursday had been a higher confidence day amongst
guidance when they agree slightly stronger dynamics arrive in the
form of a more well-defined shortwave. Now however, Thursday
appears to suffer from similar caveats as Wednesday, with morning
convection, outflow boundaries, and thick cloud cover throwing a
wrench in the mix. If sufficient daytime heating can occur, shear,
lift, moisture, and instability would likely be in place for
organized thunderstorms across much of the area, possibly strong
to severe (30-60% POPs). These trends will continue to be
monitored closely. Heading towards the weekend and into next week,
moisture will gradually come and go, along with additional
perturbations within the flow, bringing more low-end shots at
showers or storms.

The two aforementioned days serve as a prime example of the
uncertainty moving forward, despite having a persistent signal in
a more active pattern. The vast majority of the Panhandles will
have ample opportunities for precipitation at some point or
another this week, but there`s just no guarantee that conditions
pan out favorably on any given day. The outlook will continue to
evolve on a daily basis moving forward, but probabilistic and
deterministic trends suggest those that do find themselves on the
wetter end of things could see healthy amounts of rain
accumulation, potentially over a half inch to an inch by Sunday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light east to southeast winds will prevail through the early
morning hours. Winds will pick up some into the 10 to 15 knot
range as they remain southeast during the day. Winds will then
back again to the east and southeast this evening, but will remain
around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR. There may be a
stray shower or thunderstorm that affects the GUY TAF site late in
this forecast, but confidence is too low to mention it in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  61  85  58 /   0  10  40  70
Beaver OK                  91  59  85  57 /  10  20  40  70
Boise City OK              86  54  82  54 /   0  20  50  60
Borger TX                  94  62  88  60 /   0  10  40  70
Boys Ranch TX              93  61  90  59 /   0  10  40  60
Canyon TX                  91  59  87  57 /  10  10  40  60
Clarendon TX               91  61  83  59 /   0  10  60  70
Dalhart TX                 88  55  85  54 /   0  10  50  60
Guymon OK                  89  56  84  56 /   0  20  40  70
Hereford TX                94  59  90  58 /   0  10  40  60
Lipscomb TX                91  60  84  59 /   0  20  40  70
Pampa TX                   90  61  84  59 /   0  20  50  70
Shamrock TX                92  61  83  59 /   0  20  50  70
Wellington TX              94  64  85  60 /   0  20  60  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...15