Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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074 FXUS64 KAMA 171123 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 623 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite were watching lingering showers slowly dissipated out of the southeastern portions of the Panhandles. Once these showers fully dissipate, drier conditions are expected to mover in as models see a ridge build in behind the system yesterday and hold clear through the weekend. However one impact that may need to be on the look out for this early morning, will be the potential for patchy fog or low-level stratus decks. Currently many of the models do expected there to be plenty of moisture present clear into the late morning hours. However, confidence in this is not too high as many of those same model do not expect the low-level cap needed to trap said moisture to be present, which make sense since we are still unstable enough for showers to continue. For now, have left any mention of fog or low cloud decks out of the forecast due to this lack of confidence. Otherwise, expected dry and warm weather to be the theme as we close out this week. Expected temperatures to begin to rise today with many locations looking to push into mid 80s by this afternoon. Meanwhile, Saturday takes it even further with much of the Panhandles reaching the low 90s for the afternoon high temperatures, As for our notorious hot spot that is the Palo Duro Canyon, the lack of winds expected Saturday could easily see the canyon floor heat up into the mid to upper 90s for the day. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A ridge has a high chance of being the dominate feature across the southern plains to start off next week. This will bring sunny and fair weather to the panhandles for both Sunday and Monday. Conditions under this ridge will be hot with 90s across the panhandles with even a few of the hottest spots hitting the low 100s. Gusty winds can be expected to start off next week as a trough deepens over western CONUS setting up a tight pressure gradient across the panhandles. Tuesday and Wednesday should see the trough move into the southern plain becoming the dominate feature across the panhandles. This will lead to a cool down in the temperatures with the highs falling back to the 80s and 90s. Some moisture from the trough could enter the panhandles during this time which would result in increased cloud cover. If enough moisture manages to push into the panhandles then a rain showers and thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Winds during this time will likely remain gusty but overall weaker than Sunday and Monday. Thursday and Friday the pattern becomes uncertain and hard to pin down. Overall trend indicate that these days should be on the drier side with fair weather. Temperatures currently favor a warming trend with highs increasing back to the 80s and 90s. Winds should continue to follow the trend of gusty during the daytime hours. SH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Drier conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of today thanks to high pressure slowly building into the Panhandles. Surfaces winds are expected to shift over the course of the day going from northerly to pure southerly by this afternoon. However, expect wind speeds to stay relatively light. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold at all three terminals for the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 81 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 85 56 93 61 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 82 53 87 53 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 86 58 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 85 54 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 82 54 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 79 56 90 60 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 83 50 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 84 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 83 54 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 83 58 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 82 58 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 82 56 91 62 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 82 56 92 62 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...11