369
FXUS64 KAMA 011151
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
651 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For this morning, have maintained low pops across much of the
forecast area based on latest radar imagery. Expect this
precipitation to either dissipate or move out of the region by
late morning.

For later this afternoon and tonight, another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is
expected to move across the OK and TX Panhandles. With plenty of
moisture remaining along with sufficient daytime heating and
corresponding atmospheric instability and reasonable shear values,
expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop
later this afternoon along and east of the leeside surface trof
axis over the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area.
These storms should then move eastward and east southeastward
across the area late this afternoon and tonight. A few storms may
become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall
from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash flooding.

The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values
and areal coverage for Sunday and Sunday evening as heights and
mid level temperatures begin to rise across the southern high
plains. That said, expect any showers and thunderstorms that
manage to form along a developing surface dryline feature to be
more isolated in nature compared to recent days as large scale
lift will be much weaker and mid level temperatures will be
increasing, suggesting a capping inversion may play a role in
limiting storm coverage. A few storms that do develop will have
the potential to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards. Precipitation chances end areawide late
Sunday night.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For Monday through Thursday, generally dry weather is anticipated
as heights and low level thickness values rise further. It appears
the warmest day of the extended forecast periods will likely be
on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region, including Palo
Duro Canyon State Park where highs may approach Heat Advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms
may return to the region Thursday night and Friday as some semblance
of northwest flow aloft may develop. Medium range models are in
basic agreement and were accepted.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the 12Z TAFs, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
forecast to develop and track across the area late this afternoon
and tonight based on latest model guidance. Have included mention
of TSRA at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA from late this afternoon through
the late evening hours.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  62  92  63 /  20  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  88  62  93  64 /  20  50  20  20
Boise City OK              86  59  93  57 /  20  30  10   0
Borger TX                  91  64  97  65 /  20  40  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              91  62  98  60 /  20  40  10   0
Canyon TX                  88  61  93  61 /  20  30  20  10
Clarendon TX               86  62  89  65 /  20  30  30  10
Dalhart TX                 87  59  95  55 /  20  30  10   0
Guymon OK                  88  60  94  59 /  20  40  20  10
Hereford TX                89  61  95  59 /  20  30  20   0
Lipscomb TX                88  64  90  66 /  20  40  20  20
Pampa TX                   87  63  91  65 /  20  30  20  10
Shamrock TX                87  64  89  66 /  20  30  30  20
Wellington TX              88  65  89  67 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02