Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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936 FXUS63 KAPX 272353 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 753 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain gradually diminishing tonight. - Chance for showers and a few t-storms Tuesday. - Potential for frost Wednesday and Thursday nights? && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Pattern/synopsis: 995mb low pressure is east of Georgian Bay, with a sharp trof lingering back across central lower MI, just south of M-55. Northerly surface winds are in place north of the trof, westerly to the south. Widespread rain has been occurring over most of the forecast area today, though exceptions in the north (eastern upper MI) and far south, where coverage and intensity have been less. Forecast: Low pressure exits ne across central Quebec tonight, and the lingering surface trof will pivot southward. As this happens, drier air will make inroads from the north. Rain shield has already seen some erosion along the northern edge, and that will continue, though there could still be a stray rain shower to drop southward out of Ontario tonight. Overall, precip will at least partially diminish in eastern upper and part of nw lower MI this evening (w of TVC-CAD), and in n central lower MI overnight. Chancy pops linger in ne lower MI all the way until morning. Have removed all mention of thunder. Lows tonight mid 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday, a clipper-type shortwave moves se-ward toward western Superior. This will temporarily halt the drying trend. Eastern upper MI may see enough clearing for partly sunny skies, at least at times. But we`ll see more clouds than sun south of the Bridge. Still, meager late-May heating thru the clouds will support diurnal destabilization, especially as cooler temps arrive aloft. Expect places near Saginaw Bay to reach 300-400j/kg of MlCape, with smaller values elsewhere. A chance for showers lingers in ne lower MI in the morning. Then, showers should see some regeneration in the afternoon, especially in the se. In addition, showers that pop in ne WI could move toward nw lower MI as we head toward evening. A mention of afternoon thunder in the far se, where perhaps some small hail will be possible in the coolish airmass. Highs upper 50s far north to around 70f ne lower MI. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current shortwave troughing over the Great Lakes region will slowly progress towards the east coast at the start of the forecast period. Elongated ridging near the Pacific begins to build over the West Coast and makes it way towards the CWA by the Wednesday evening time frame. Quiet weather will persist for the first half of the long term ahead of upstream toughing delivering additional chances of showers next weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: High pressure builds at the start of the long term period resulting in quiet weather through the work week: Current mid- level troughing will begin to move to the east coast Wednesday night. A few lingering showers will remain in the area Tuesday Evening as lingering bits of moisture hang around the CWA. Conditions dry out this Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most areas. There is some potential of frost Wednesday and Thursday night as clear skies and dew points near freezing could allow radiational cooling to drop overnight lows into the 30s, but the main threat still primarily remains in interior locations. Chances of precipitation return this weekend. No heavy rainfall or severe weather expected at this time: Mid-level troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress towards the CWA this weekend while weakening. Aforementioned troughing is expected to lift as it traverses the midwest, resulting in a weakening frontal boundary as it crosses the CWA. Scattered showers can be expected at times Saturday and Sunday, but no heavy precipitation or severe weather appears likely at this time due to the unorganized dynamics of the system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 752 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Widespread rain across northern Michigan will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast tonight into Tuesday morning. Associated IFR CIGs/VSBY restrictions are also expected to lift to VFR conditions across most TAF sites over the next several hours as precip intensity decreases and drier air works into the Great Lakes. Northwest winds will become less gusty tonight before picking back up Tuesday morning with gusts around 20 kts through the afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC