445
FXUS63 KAPX 221941
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
341 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon.

- Showers likely Friday night into early Saturday.

- More showers likely Sunday night into Memorial Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite depicts a cloud
deck lingering over a wide area covering NW lower up through
eastern upper this afternoon. Model soundings depict a strong
capping inversion over KTVC with dry air above ~4kft, curbing
any chances for showers later this evening as a weak boundary
moves across the area. Southwesterly surface winds ahead of this
boundary have been gusting to around 20 to 30 mph this
afternoon, but should subside near sunset and turn west. Better
MUCAPE exists near the tip of the mitt and eastern upper this
evening, which leads to slight chances for a storm or two. Any
storms that do form will be short lived and at most produce
heavy rain, lightning, and possibly small hail and/or gusty
winds.

Skies should clear overnight tonight while winds diminish.
Patchy haze could form in some low spots. Thursday, an upper
level low centered over eastern Ontario CA will increase a
gradient aloft as it continues eastward, strengthening northwest winds
aloft over eastern upper and Lake Huron. Winds of 30 to 40kts at
4kt exist early Thursday morning, but will subside through the
day as the upper low gets farther away from the state. By the
afternoon hours, mixing heights will rise to ~10kft and tap into
around 20 to 25kts, leading to gusts up to 20 to 25kts mid day.
Most models decrease PWs to around 0.4 inches, reflecting the
dry air aloft that will be mixed down to the surface. This will
lead to rapidly decreasing humidity values, bottoming out in
the mid to low 20 percent range. Temperatures will be around 5
to 10 degrees above normal and skies mostly clear.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: For dry conditions
Thursday, the lowest humidities are forecasted to be over NE
lower, with the strongest winds closer to the tip of the mitt
and over eastern upper. Winds will also weaken through the
afternoon hours. This set up will likely result in a few
locations sporadically reaching elevated fire weather
conditions Thursday afternoon. At this time conditions are not
thought to be widespread enough for product headlines, however
we will watch how winds trend as those slightly stronger gusts
could linger longer through the afternoon or reach farther south
into NE lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A somewhat active weather pattern is anticipated over the next
several days. In the meantime, a fairly warm and mainly rain free
day is expected Friday courtesy of surface and upper level ridging.
Attention will then turn to energy currently evident on water vapor
imagery currently across the Pacific Northwest which is expected to
track into the Great Lakes region late Friday into the first half of
Saturday. This system is likely to produce showers with possible
embedded rumbles of thunder (just a couple of hundred J/kg of mixed
layer cape in evidence). Nearly zonal flow aloft follows for
Saturday afternoon into much of Sunday. Another Pacific trough then
likely ejects into the region Sunday night while possibly spinning
up a decent surface wave (guidance remains rather mixed on just how
deep). This system is likely to produce another round of showers and
perhaps a little thunder (and perhaps breezy conditions as well)
Sunday night into Memorial Day. Unsettled conditions could hang on
into the middle of next week as well with a majority of extended
guidance cutting off upper level energy across the region.

Warm temperatures expected Friday followed by not as warm conditions
Saturday and Sunday. Cooler readings are then expected early next
week. Cooler forecast lows through much of the period which should
make for rather comfortable sleeping conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Skies generally MVFR for NW lower and eastern upper terminals
and VFR for NE lower terminals this afternoon. MVFR cigs will
linger for the aforementioned terminals likely through 21/22Z,
with slight chances for cigs to linger through 00Z. A very weak
FROPA will try to produce VCSH mostly near KCIU/KPLN/KTVC from
22Z to 04Z as it moves across the region. Winds SW generally
15kts with G20-30kts will veer to W AOB 10kts after 03Z. Gusty
west winds will build again Thursday after 16Z. Mostly VFR
conditions Thursday. Very low chances for any -HZ/FG tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016-
     020-025-031-095-096-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...ELD