Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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526 FXUS63 KAPX 030622 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 222 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Perhaps a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms tonight. - Some scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible Tuesday. A locally stronger storm not ruled out, with primary hazards of gusty winds and hail. - Potential for more widespread showers and thunder Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Cooler temperatures and more unsettled weather possible at times after Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Mid level ridging centered south to north across the Northwoods early this morning, with the center of its surface reflection running just a bit further east across Quebec and eastern Ontario. Dry weather the result, with just some increasing high clouds from decaying showers well to our west. Overhead ridge will only slowly move off to our east today and tonight as weak shortwave trough rotates into the western Great Lakes. Increasing elevated return flow will help organize and drive a warm front into central Michigan by sunrise Tuesday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and addressing potential for a few showers and thunderstorms tonight. Details: Focus for initial deep layer moisture advection now looks to remain off to our west today (delayed by several hours from original expectations), with better moisture return expected later tonight with arrival of weak low level jet across the western Great Lakes. Lack of any specific forcing mechanism to utilize this increased moisture, with exceptionally disorganized and weak forcing along the the northward moving warm front and better mid level support remaining well off to our west. Simple breadth of moisture advection (precipitable water values exceed an inch this evening through the overnight) and some minimal mass convergence within arrival of that low level jet does support at least the chance for a few showers tonight. Just enough elevated instability to perhaps kick off a few embedded thunderstorms, but definitely nothing severe expected. Definitely wouldn`t be surprised to see much of the area remain dry tonight, with the better threat for showers remaining centered across Lake Michigan/central upper Michigan and points west. Definitely will feel a bit more like summer today, with at least filtered sunshine this morning and developing light southeast flow helping drive temperatures well up into the 70s and lower 80s. Of course that southeast flow will drive Lake Huron marine influences a bit further inland, keeping coastal areas of northeast lower and eastern upper Michigan at least a few degrees cooler. A mild overnight, with lows only reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Convoluted pattern dictated by a closed low spinning over Manitoba directing zonal flow into the region Tuesday. Expectation is that a convective wave will be over the region and making its departure through the day, bringing a lingering chance of showers and perhaps some thunder across the region. This wave is set to clear, with strong southerly flow increasing moisture concentration ahead of a more synoptically driven wave later Tuesday into Wednesday. This should drive enough instability to generate the chance for more showers and thunder. Beyond this, the closed low will slowly drift south and east into the Great Lakes, forcing a second cold front through the region by Thursday, ushering a cooler airmass. The slow moving low pressure will be somewhat transient, but slow enough to bring a period of below normal temperatures and perhaps additional showery conditions into the weekend. Primary Forecast Concerns: Tuesday Afternoon: Frustrating amount of uncertainty regarding the departure of tonight`s influences from the convective wave... but general consensus is that activity should taper across northeast lower and the eastern Yoop by early morning. On its heels, will see an impressive surge of moisture, with what will likely be the first quite humid day of the warm season looking like it is on the table as dewpoints may balloon as high as the mid to perhaps upper 60s. As we will be in more of the warm sector in the synoptic scheme of things with surface temps rocketing well into the 80s in the afternoon, should see enough to bust through any sort of capping across the region, resulting in some showers and thunder. Would not be out of the question for some of these storms to be on the stronger side, with the strongest storms possibly dropping some hail and gusty winds amid steepening lapse rates aloft contributing to the potential for 1,000-2,000 Joules of MLCAPE. Slow storm motions are also expected, and with PWATs soaring upwards of 1.50+, could certainly see some locally heavy rainfall totals from these airmass driven storms. Tuesday Night / Wednesday: As stated by previous forecaster, still some uncertainty regarding the approach of the deeper synoptic wave for later Tuesday, but nonetheless, guidance still tries to depict the larger wave passing through later Tuesday night into Wednesday, complete with what will probably be a linear storm mode originating from Wisconsin. Will need to watch how much elevated instability can transpire ahead of this line to sustain itself as it moves into the region, but looks like it will be weakening as it moves into northern Michigan. Result will be potential for a window of showers and storms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still hold some concerns from previous forecast cycle that this feature is slower to move into the region, as that could raise the stakes for severe weather if this turns into more of a late Wednesday morning - afternoon passage given the presence of deeper bulk shear with this wave. Some time in the Thursday - Thursday evening timeframe, will be watching a secondary cold front passing through the region in conjunction with the approaching closed low pressure system. Result will be an airmass that goes from a mid-summer feel to more of an autumnal feel, with temperatures going from a peak of well into the 80s on Tuesday to low-mid 60s Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will remain centered over Michigan overnight...and will then push eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes on Monday. Mainly clear skies and light/variable winds overnight combined with some lingering shallow low level moisture will likely lend to some fog production and IFR conditions into early Monday... mainly across NE Lower Michigan. A cold front will move into the Western Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. Chances of showers and possibly a few storms will begin to increase Monday night along and ahead of this front. Winds will become SE at around 10 kts on Monday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...MLR