Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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458 FXUS63 KAPX 041802 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 202 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms possible today into this evening. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. - Chances for Showers and Storms Wednesday afternoon. - Cool and wet weather will continue through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Weak ridging over the southern Great Lakes will continue to amplify today as a weak shortwave pivots across the Midwest and over western portions of the Great Lakes into tonight. The region will be situated between surface high pressure across the NE CONUS and a deepening cyclone trekking across south-central Canada underneath favorable forcing aloft provided by a much stronger wave working over the northern Great Plains. Forecast Details: Scattered thunderstorms today -- Ongoing showers may linger through the morning hours across parts of northern Michigan ahead of the main chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. A corridor of higher quality boundary layer moisture may stretch along the western half of the CWA today, providing an axis of buoyancy (~500-1,000 J/kg MLCAPE) to support thunderstorm development. As previous forecaster noted, little forcing from large scale ascent will be present to aid thunderstorms -- but current confidence is that at least a few storms will initiate across parts of northwest lower/Tip of the Mitt later this afternoon and last into this evening. Confidence decreases with southward extent from the bridge. Severe storms are not anticipated with weak wind shear in place, making organized strong storms unlikely. Primary hazards with any storms today will be lightning, heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Otherwise, a warm day is in store for much of the area as temperatures look to climb well into the 80s for most areas. Thunderstorms may limit high temperatures across areas where they do develop, but some could see localized readings reach into the upper 80s during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Stacked upper level low over Manitoba CA will reach a short wave and surface cold front south into the western Great Lakes region and the Mississippi Valley early Wednesday morning. This front and wave will rotate around the low, moving towards MI late Wednesday morning/midday. Anomalous values of moisture will be advected into the state ahead of this feature, with most mid and short range models showing PW values of at least 1.2" to even 1.5". Model soundings show that moisture through the column with a long and skinny trace amounting to around 1000 - 1500 j/kg of SB CAPE (highest instability over NE lower and eastern UP at this time). Due to this, chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the front exist Wednesday afternoon as it moves across the CWA. The upper level low will gradually slip over southwest Ontario CA and Lk Superior Thursday, This will move cooler air overhead and tighten gradients aloft which could lead to breezy west winds. Chances for showers will continue Thursday afternoon as possibly another lobe of energy rotates around the low. The upper low center will pass over the CWA towards Lk Huron Friday morning, continuing clouds, cooler temps, and light rain into the end of the work week. Most global models have the upper low anchoring near Lk Huron over the weekend (even retrograding slightly on Monday), which would establish northwest flow overhead and continue clouds, cooler temperatures and light rain through early next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence thoughts in showers and storms Wednesday afternoon - Winds aloft are weaker and unidirectional shear is more marginal, leading to less likely chances for severe attributes with storms. Models are have shown run to run consistency with moisture availability, leading to higher confidence in the most likely threats being heavy rain and lightning. Flooding doesn`t look to be a concern, as showers will move from west to east. Rain amounts could reach up to an inch or more, however the likely hood of training or stalling storms is low. As far as the remaining rain in the forecast, little detail changes could result in the difference between mostly clouds and rain or getting a little more clearing in between the chances for rain. At this time, there are a lot of details in play and this can lead to more inherent uncertainty for the longer term forecast details. The main thing is that rain chances and cooler temperatures will likely stick around for a little while. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Increasing confidence in generally dry conditions through the afternoon, although the most likely area to see an ISO -SHRA or -TSRA will be in the vicinity of the Tip of the Mitt and eastern upper, but not too terribly confident. Southeast winds through the afternoon and into the overnight, 5 to 15 KTs. CIGs begin to decrease from the southwest to northeast Wednesday morning and midday, becoming MVFR and IFR across KMBL and KTVC. In addition, RA and TSRA expected between 09-15Z west of I-75, spreading eastward into the midday to afternoon hours. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...JLD