Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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445 FXUS63 KAPX 221941 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 341 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon. - Showers likely Friday night into early Saturday. - More showers likely Sunday night into Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite depicts a cloud deck lingering over a wide area covering NW lower up through eastern upper this afternoon. Model soundings depict a strong capping inversion over KTVC with dry air above ~4kft, curbing any chances for showers later this evening as a weak boundary moves across the area. Southwesterly surface winds ahead of this boundary have been gusting to around 20 to 30 mph this afternoon, but should subside near sunset and turn west. Better MUCAPE exists near the tip of the mitt and eastern upper this evening, which leads to slight chances for a storm or two. Any storms that do form will be short lived and at most produce heavy rain, lightning, and possibly small hail and/or gusty winds. Skies should clear overnight tonight while winds diminish. Patchy haze could form in some low spots. Thursday, an upper level low centered over eastern Ontario CA will increase a gradient aloft as it continues eastward, strengthening northwest winds aloft over eastern upper and Lake Huron. Winds of 30 to 40kts at 4kt exist early Thursday morning, but will subside through the day as the upper low gets farther away from the state. By the afternoon hours, mixing heights will rise to ~10kft and tap into around 20 to 25kts, leading to gusts up to 20 to 25kts mid day. Most models decrease PWs to around 0.4 inches, reflecting the dry air aloft that will be mixed down to the surface. This will lead to rapidly decreasing humidity values, bottoming out in the mid to low 20 percent range. Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal and skies mostly clear. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: For dry conditions Thursday, the lowest humidities are forecasted to be over NE lower, with the strongest winds closer to the tip of the mitt and over eastern upper. Winds will also weaken through the afternoon hours. This set up will likely result in a few locations sporadically reaching elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. At this time conditions are not thought to be widespread enough for product headlines, however we will watch how winds trend as those slightly stronger gusts could linger longer through the afternoon or reach farther south into NE lower. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A somewhat active weather pattern is anticipated over the next several days. In the meantime, a fairly warm and mainly rain free day is expected Friday courtesy of surface and upper level ridging. Attention will then turn to energy currently evident on water vapor imagery currently across the Pacific Northwest which is expected to track into the Great Lakes region late Friday into the first half of Saturday. This system is likely to produce showers with possible embedded rumbles of thunder (just a couple of hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape in evidence). Nearly zonal flow aloft follows for Saturday afternoon into much of Sunday. Another Pacific trough then likely ejects into the region Sunday night while possibly spinning up a decent surface wave (guidance remains rather mixed on just how deep). This system is likely to produce another round of showers and perhaps a little thunder (and perhaps breezy conditions as well) Sunday night into Memorial Day. Unsettled conditions could hang on into the middle of next week as well with a majority of extended guidance cutting off upper level energy across the region. Warm temperatures expected Friday followed by not as warm conditions Saturday and Sunday. Cooler readings are then expected early next week. Cooler forecast lows through much of the period which should make for rather comfortable sleeping conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Skies generally MVFR for NW lower and eastern upper terminals and VFR for NE lower terminals this afternoon. MVFR cigs will linger for the aforementioned terminals likely through 21/22Z, with slight chances for cigs to linger through 00Z. A very weak FROPA will try to produce VCSH mostly near KCIU/KPLN/KTVC from 22Z to 04Z as it moves across the region. Winds SW generally 15kts with G20-30kts will veer to W AOB 10kts after 03Z. Gusty west winds will build again Thursday after 16Z. Mostly VFR conditions Thursday. Very low chances for any -HZ/FG tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016- 020-025-031-095-096-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...ELD