Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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371 FXUS63 KAPX 310240 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1040 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances for showers Saturday. - Better chances of precipitation return next week. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms remains on Monday evening. - Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend, peaking in the 70s and 80s Monday through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Current forecast remains on track with no notable changes. For forecast details, please see the short term discussion below. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 1025 mb high pressure is centered across the region. This system will slowly drift off to the east through Friday. Return flow develops very late tonight on into Friday. Skies are expected to remain clear through tonight with increasing high clouds Friday afternoon (cirrus). The airmass will remain dry and combine with the clear skies and nearly calm winds to promote excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Full green-up conditions are expected to inhibit temperatures from totally tanking. Inland low lying spots will again be susceptible to some frost (similar to last night) but not expecting a widespread frost event. Lows generally ranging through the 30s to around 40. Warmer Friday with highs ranging from the middle 70s to around 80 but as usual it will be cooler near the lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Midlevel shortwave ridging continues to build across the central U.S/Upper Midwest pushing quiet and mild weather for the Great Lakes Region. Upstream troughing spanned over the western half of North America will return a more active weather pattern at times next week. The midlevel ridge will continue to occupy the Great Lakes Region starting the forecast period off dry the fist half of Saturday. Aforementioned troughing will stretch/elongate and center its axis over Lake Superior (while weakening). Embedded height disturbances will push showers and even some thunderstorms from time to time for the remainder of the forecast period, but no heavy rainfall or severe weather expected at this time. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Slight chances of precipitation return next week. Best chance of showers and thunderstorms remain on Monday evening: The long term period starts off dry as a weak trough/quasi zonal flow pattern builds across the region. Chances of precipitation returning Saturday remain low across the CWA. Current guidance is hinting at H8 winds along with moisture bifurcating around the lower penisula as energy crosses Lake Michigan. A few areas could see a some showers, especially the U.P and areas downstate, but only a 10th or so of measurable liquid can be expected inside the CWA. Low level moisture increases this Monday providing a better convective environment for a boundary passing northern Michigan this Monday. PWATs remain near climatological average for Monday so no heavy rainfall is expected but a good soaking of rain with embedded thunderstorms will impact most locations. -Watching for better storm system development next week: Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over Alaska will progress southeast and make its way to the Great Lakes region by the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Latest guidance supports a better synoptically driven system to push showers and storms through the CWA, but to early to message details or impacts (if any), but continued precip can be expected to carry through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 719 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the issuance period. Clear/sunny skies will persist through Friday morning before high clouds begin to move in from the west Friday afternoon/evening. Calm winds tonight will increase to around 10 kts out of the southwest Friday morning. As noted in previous discussion, there is low confidence in potential FG/BR development late tonight -- and precludes explicit mention in the TAFs at this time. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJC SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC