295
FXUS63 KAPX 011726
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
126 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat for mostly light rain showers later today and tonight.

- Chances for showers with possible thunderstorms Tuesday

- Cooler temperatures and a wet pattern likely for the end of the
work  week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Apex of sharp mid level trough axis centered south to north across
Lake Huron early this morning...resulting in dry conditions across
northern Michigan. Active weather remains displaced well to our west
and southwest, the former driven by decaying cold front and shearing
mid level trough axis...with the latter a product of a convective
agitated shortwave trough and its attendant weak surface reflection.

Ridge axis will continue to move east into tonight, allowing
upstream waves to move into the Great Lakes region...bringing a
shower threat along with them.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing shower potential.

Details:

Upstream cold front expected to wash out on its journey into the
northern Great Lakes this morning as parent mid level trough
continues to shear off to the northeast. Convectively agitated wave
to our southwest continues to move off to the northeast, gradually
losing some definition as it runs into retreating ridge axis.
Primary moisture advection/forced moisture convergence largely
remains centered with that southern wave, with moisture profiles
steadily thinning along that decaying cold front. Corridor of
enhanced moisture convergence/isentropic ascent looks to target the
southeast third of our area...with better juxtaposition of moisture
and deep layer forcing expected to remain across the southern Great
Lakes later today into this evening. Upshot to the above...expect
dry conditions this morning to give way to an increasing shower
threat later this afternoon into tonight...again with best shower
coverage expected across the southeast third of the area.
Instability remains limited at best, so not expecting much in the
way of any thunder threat. Highs today ranging through the 70s, with
lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: An upper level short wave will exit
the state as it continues east Sunday. Rain chances will diminish
through Sunday morning. Surface high pressure builds in through
Sunday, keeping winds near the surface light and squashing any
chances for afternoon convective showers. MUCAPE of around a few
hundred j/kg max could linger near Saginaw Bay in the afternoon
hours, however chances remain low for anything to come from that.
Upper level ridging will breifly move overhead Monday, leading to
afternoon temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above
average through Tuesday. Winds will turn south to southeasterly
Monday afternoon as the next upper level wave and surface boundary
approach the Great Lakes Region. Winds will be breezy at times, but
on the lighter side as the surface low will reach up into northern
Ontario (most ECMWF and GFS ensemble members). More moisture and
rain chances will move in Monday night into Tuesday. At this time,
global deterministic and ensemble guidance has a decent spread on
what happens next. The leading solution is to deepen an area of
lower heights over Manitoba CA and extend a wave down into the Great
Lakes Region Wednesday. This solution would likely harbor some
instability with widespread rain chances most of Wednesday. Global
deterministic models coverage Thursday, closing the upper low off
over southern Ontario CA. Cooler temperatures, clouds and rain would
linger through the end of the work week with this solution.
Ensembles paint a different story, showing larger spread in
solutions.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: There is some uncertainty
with storm chances Tuesday afternoon. Various deterministic models
still resolve the details of upper level support differently, with
some (like the GFS) quickly deepening a shortwave over southern MN
late Tuesday. This additional amplification to the flow would
tighten gradients aloft, adding to possible dynamics as well as
lowering heights (and cooling temps) aloft. All of this resulting in
more instabilty to work with Tuesday afternoon. This could result
in widespread rain and clouds with embedded minor thunderstorms in a
few spots. The other scenario would be that more of the forcing
remains to our north and west, resulting in mostly cloud cover with
some light rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Cloud cover will continue to increase through this afternoon and
overnight with -SHRA/-RA expected to develop. Precipitation
will move southwest to northeast, impacting KMBL late this
afternoon and spreading into KAPN into the overnight hours. Less
confident from KPLN up to KCIU but cannot rule out some brief
-SHRA. CIGs will lower to MVFR as moisture increases and -SHRA develops
 tonight with brief IFR possible from KMBL to KTVC.
-RA should exit most areas by 12Z Sunday morning with CIGs returning
  between 15 to 18Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB/MLR