791
FNUS53 KAPX 211933
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...Strong to severe storms possible Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...

A line of storms is could potentially bring showers to much of the
area, helping to keep fuels moist. Southeast winds 5-10 mph with
gusts to 15-20 mph are expected through tonight into Wednesday
before slowly decreasing in magnitude as we head into Wednesday
night. A few days of rain-free weather will help dry fuels, combined
with potential critical/ near-critical RHs and gusty winds may lead
to fire weather concerns for parts of northern Michigan Thursday
afternoon.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-220815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (81).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1120).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (78).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent...except 37-42 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1494).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 1200Slight chance of rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer...except 10 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 30 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1034).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 16 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1538).
Mixing Height.......7300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (111).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.29 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler...except 12 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1023).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler...except 6 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1411).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-220815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (122).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.14 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1090).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (55).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 40-45 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1534).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
333 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (67).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1181).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1776).
Mixing Height.......8500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

NSC