479
AXNT20 KNHC 292103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W/19W, S of 17N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 15N and east of 23W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, south of 11N, moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to
11N between 35W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, south of 14N, moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 13N and between 55W and 62W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, south of 16W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 08N21W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 05N33W and then from 05N38W to
06N53W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm
south of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the NE Gulf from central
Florida to Louisiana while a surface trough is noted in the SW
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found W of 90W with light winds
E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of
90W.

Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central
America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Observation sites along the Bay of Campeche and
western Gulf continue to report visibilities at 3 nm of less.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate
across the Gulf through Sun. As a result, winds will pulse
moderate to fresh during the evenings through the weekend. A weak
cold front moving across the far NE Gulf will continue to support
gentle W to NW winds over that region today, while dissipating by
tonight. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near
the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, impacting visibility at
times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extending into the NW Caribbean Sea continues
to push tropical moisture northward supporting scattered showers
over portions of the NW and central Caribbean, affecting eastern
Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. The environment will remain
conducive for showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect eastern
Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola during the next several days,
especially in the evening and night hours. Locally heavy rain and
gusty winds are possible, especially in mountainous areas, leading
to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for
more specific information.

A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 42N48W SW to the
Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas
in these waters are in the 5-8 ft range. Gentle to light winds
and slight seas are in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft prevail over much of the
remainder of the Caribbean waters. Hazy conditions continue to
affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires in Central
America. Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times, especially
along the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will
support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will become moderate to fresh Thu
and Fri as the pressure gradient temporarily loosens. The pressure
gradient will increase by the weekend, bringing fresh to strong
winds across the central basin. A tropical wave currently over the
western Caribbean is causing scattModerate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of these
boundaries and east of 57W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic
is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered SE
of Newfoundland, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by broad
ridging. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds south of a line from the the western Canary
Islands to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are
4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.
ered showers and thunderstorms
over the SW Caribbean and Central America. The wave is forecast to
move into the E Pacific waters tonight. Smoke from agricultural
fires over Central America is causing reduced visibilities over
portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W to central Florida. Farther
east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N40W and
continues southwestward to 29N48W, where it becomes a surface
trough, stretching southwestward to near Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, generally prevail across the
discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending from high
pressure over the NW Atlantic is contributing towards moderate or
lighter winds across the region. A weak cold front is moving off
the Florida coast, with tranquil conditions following it. The
front will dissipate tonight while another front will emerge Thu.
High pressure behind this front will tighten the pressure gradient
across the region, bringing moderate to fresh winds across waters
N of 20N. Moderate seas can also be expected with these winds.
Conditions will slightly improve by early next week N of 27N.

$$
AL