581
FXUS61 KBGM 211945
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
345 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Summer like weather expected this evening into the day on
Wednesday with hot temperatures. There will be isolated
thunderstorms this evening, with more widespread thunderstorms
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few of the storms
could be strong to severe. A cold front then settles south of
the region giving us a short break with mostly sunny skies and
warm temperatures on Friday. A series of disturbances brings
chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on
Memorial Day, with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

345 PM Update

Thunderstorms are firing up as expected mainly outside of our
forecast area so far this afternoon (over the Adirondacks and
eastern Catskills/Hudson Valley region. The next weak wave and
surface convergence is developing over western NY now, and this
may be enough of a trigger to start some scattered thunderstorm
activity over the northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and
Mohawk Valley heading into the evening hours. MLCAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, with LIs down to -5 in this area as of 3 PM.
There is some lingering surface based CIN present too. Effective
layer shear is pushing 25-30 kts, with the supercell parameter
between 1-2, showing some potential for a storm or two to become
organized this evening...if it can tap into the full column of
convective available potential energy. Any t`storm activity will
wane to lingering showers by 9-10 pm with dry weather returning
overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s
for most locations. Model guidance was not showing much fog
potential tonight.

Wednesday starts off dry, mostly sunny and very warm. The
south-southwest winds boost temperatures well up into the 80s
with low 90s in the valley locations. By mid to late afternoon
some thunderstorm activity will begin to develop over western NY
and western PA...these storms will then press east through the
late afternoon and evening hours along the pre-frontal trough.
The environment continues to look favorable for some isolated
strong to severe storms to develop. MLCAPE will be close to
2000 J/Kg, with DCAPE values 800-1100 J/kg also expected. Deep
layer shear is lacking, only around 20 kts...but the ample
instability and good directional shear may be enough to
strengthen storms. There is a slight risk for severe storms over
the western half of the forecast areas from SPC, with a marginal
risk further east. The main threat will be isolated instances
of damaging winds and even a chance for some 1"+ hail. With
ample CAPE, frequent lightning and heavy downpours will also be
possible with any storms. Current best timing estimate are 3-7
PM along and west of I-81...then 6-10 PM southeast of I-81 in
Central NY and NE PA.

After the evening thunderstorms exit, there could still be some
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight as the front/trough
stalls over the region. It will be rather muggy for late May,
with lows in the 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM update...

Scattered showers and potentially a few stronger thunderstorms
are expected to continue into the early evening hours Wednesday
night before becoming more isolated in nature later on with the
loss of daytime heating. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s
and with dew points not much lower than the actual temperature,
it will have a little bit of a muggy feel to it. The cold front
responsible for the convection late Wednesday will stall out
across NE PA and the southern Catskills Thursday. A weak surface
low will move northeast along the boundary aiding in the
development of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
with the convection most concentrated near the boundary. Dew
points in this area will reach the mid 60s and shear values look
decent, but CAPE and mid-level lapse rates are not as high
compared to late Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Highs Thursday
will be generally in the 70s, but near 80 degrees in the Wyoming
Valley and southern Sullivan County.

Cooler, drier air will filter in Thursday night and skies will
be clearing out as surface high pressure builds in. Lows
Thursday night will fall back into the 50s. Friday looks largely
dry with some sunshine and a comfortably warm afternoon with
dew points in the 50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s to the
low 80s in some valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM update...

Later Friday night through Saturday features a low chance
(25%-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms as a upper level
shortwave lifts northeastward toward our area. Some additional
moisture may try to stream in from the north from a broad
shortwave trough that is expected to pass by to our north and
west. Sunday looks dry before an area of low pressure and
associated cold front brings the chance for showers and
thunderstorms back into the area Monday. Highs Saturday and
Sunday are expected to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s at
night. Monday`s highs look to be a little lower from the upper
60s into the low and mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
150 PM Update

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. The one
thing to watch will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms
in the vicinity of SYR and RME from about 21z to 01z this
evening. Included a tempo at these two taf sites for this
potential. Confidence is low to moderate in a thunderstorm
directly impacting the TAF sites at this time.

Otherwise, there will be a few to sct mid and high level clouds
around through the period. Expected a general light southwesterly
wind during the daytime hours. There could be a diurnal wind
shift at RME, ITH, AVP and ELM to more east- southeast or calm
winds overnight. Southwest winds resume by late Wednesday
morning and into the early afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
restrictions, highest chances from 19z to 02z.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MJM