Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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783 FXUS63 KBIS 251107 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 607 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost headlines continue through early this morning. - Precipitation chances (about 50 to 70 percent) return for Monday/Monday night. - Brief dry period for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with active weather pattern returning thereafter for the rest of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 For early morning update radar echos over northwest North Dakota have been reluctant to dissipate, so have added some low chances for the next couple of hours. Over portions of western and south central North Dakota some patches of fog have developed, so have added that to the forecast through the early morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Current surface analysis places low near and just to the north of Lake of the Woods along the Manitoba/Ontario border. Upper level analysis shows low nearly stacked, with weak ridging to the lee of the Rockies. A few weak waves currently rotating around the low, one of which is possibly producing a few light rain/snow showers over the northwest per latest radar imagery, though no surface observations are picking up on this at this moment. Many locations in our area have dipped into the mid 30s, in line with the ongoing frost/freeze headlines. For today, a quiet day is expected as upper low lifts northerly and warmer air starts to return to the area. With that said, high temperatures will still be about 5 to 10 degrees below average (with average highs this time of year hovering around 70). Then next short wave wraps in south of the aforementioned low very late tonight into Sunday, resulting in elevated rain shower chances (~50-70 percent chance) Sunday spreading west to east. Enough instability will be present for some thunderstorms to occur, but at this time the severe potential remains low. Chances for showers remain into Monday primarily over eastern portions of the area as the upper low starts to open and becomes wrapped behind the trough to the east, passing through our area. Ridge to the west gradually slides through our area for Tuesday into the start of Wednesday, bringing a dry period and a very gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing into the 70s across the area by Wednesday. Ridge slides east late day Wednesday into Thursday, with shower/thunderstorm chances returning as pattern becomes active again through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas of MVFR ceilings over northwest and north central North Dakota will improve later this morning. Over parts of western and south central North Dakota, patchy fog has developed and will remain through early this morning. This may bring localized IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-002-009>011-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ003>005-012- 013. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS