889
FXUS63 KBIS 251935
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
235 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible in the central and south central
  overnight.

- Breezy westerly winds Sunday and Monday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (about 60 percent) return
  Sunday morning through Monday morning.

- Brief dry period for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with an active
  weather pattern returning for the rest of the week after.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Currently the stacked low from the past few days is sitting
north of Minnesota. We have low diurnal cumulus forming in the
cyclonic flow across the area. Aloft, flow is mostly zonal south
of the low, with a slight ridge in eastern Montana and a
shortwave west of that.

Tonight will be warmer than last night with lows in the 40s. We
lowered temperatures where the snow fell by blending in the NBM
50th with the NBM. Up there any non snow covered areas could get
frost. With lower confidence in the frost and warmer
temperatures we choose not to do a frost advisory. The only
areas that have a chance of frost are most likely snow covered
anyways. There might be patchy fog around Glen Ullin and
Bismarck, and north like this morning.

We will remain dry until later tonight when the shortwave opens
up over the west. Timing looks to be sometime between 06z and
10z depending on what CAM you look at unfortunately. These will
most likely just be rain showers until some daytime heating
kicks in for some energy. Then our chances for thunder goes up
to 45 percent after 1pm central time. The showers will move off
to eastern North Dakota with the low pressure Monday morning.
The chances will slowly go down after 7pm central time Sunday.
Rain totals look to be around 0.25 to 0.40 mainly east of the
river. Of course there could be higher amounts in thunderstorms,
otherwise it looks like a quick moving system. Winds will get
slightly breezy in the western counties from the west. A
pressure rise bubble mainly in Montana will be present with a
slightly tight pressure gradient.

Monday, Memorial Day, will be drier than Sunday but still a
30 percent chance of showers east of the river. This is from
some potential wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow aloft. The
south this time will have the tighter pressure gradient from
the low, so expect breezy winds through the evening.

After Monday a tall ridge with warmer 850mb temperatures moves
in. We will be dry with temperatures warming to the 70s west of
the river Tuesday where the thermal ridge is set up. Wednesday
will be the warmest day with the warm thermal ridge and breezy
south winds. Highs will be near 80 in the west and lower 70s
east.

Our active southwest flow returns Wednesday night when a big
trough digs through the Pacific Northwest. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be in the forecast late Wednesday evening
through Friday. Temperatures look to stay in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR through the period with light winds from the north, turning
to the south overnight. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm will
move in towards the end of the period in the west, spreading
east through Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith