608
FNUS73 KBIS 220923
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Northwestern Lake WPA...FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
423 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A mostly sunny morning and early afternoon can be expected at the
burn site, with some increasing clouds later in the afternoon.
Winds will be out of the northwest at around 10 to 15 mph through
the day, with afternoon gusts as high as 20 mph. Relative
humidity around 65 percent at the planned ignition time will
quickly fall below 50 percent by the afternoon and reach a minimum
value near 35 percent later in the day.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West-northwest around 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (78900 knot-ft) in the morning increasing to
                    very good (139200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   11  14  17  23  30  36  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
Temp............53  56  58  60  63  64  65  66
RH..............64  55  47  42  39  38  37  37
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..13  14  13  13  13  12  12  11
20 FT wind gust.19  20  19  19  19  18  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 5.0 5.9 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.22  22  21  21  20  20  18  17
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..79  95  106 123 127 139 135 121

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of
                    showers.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph in the evening,
                    shifting to the northeast around 7 to 12 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 to 15 mph in the evening,
                    shifting to the east-northeast around 15 to
                    20 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (96200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37  37  45  53  61  63  64  65  64  63  62  66
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  20  30  30  30  30  30  40  40
Temp............66  65  63  58  55  54  52  51  49  48  47  46
RH..............36  40  46  55  64  66  71  74  80  80  86  89
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  9   8   7   6   7   7   8   9   10  11  12
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  11  10  11  12  13  14  14  17  18
Mix hgt (kft)...6.9 6.0 3.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.16  14  9   8   8   8   10  15  16  18  18  18
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..96  72  26  4   4   4   4   5   6   9   10  12

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers through
                    the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 15 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up
                    to 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds possible near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (59100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........70        69        70        77
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         20
Chc of pcpn (%).40        30        30        50
Temp............45        46        51        57
RH..............93        86        71        62
20 FT wind......E 13G19   E 16G21   E 17G24   E 19G26
Mix hgt (ft)....800       1500      2200      2900
Transport wind..E 20      E 22      E 22      E 22
Haines index....5         4         3         2
Dispr kt-ft/1K..13        29        41        55

$$
Forecaster...HOLLAN
Requested by...Terry Gwilliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414856.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0