802
FXUS64 KBMX 251154
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
654 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

Remnants of a decaying MCS over western TN and northern MS will
track into western Alabama early this morning. Most of the lightning
activity has dissipated over northern MS. Earlier hi-res model runs
had showed a line of convection moving southeast through north
Alabama this morning, but the latest model runs now show very little
activity across central Alabama through the morning. There may be
window this afternoon once high clouds dissipate and daytime heating
activates scattered thunderstorms, but areal coverage of storms
looks low. Any storm that develops this afternoon will have the
potential to become briefly severe with damaging winds and large
hail. For tonight and Sunday, upper heights increase over Alabama as
a short wave trough moves through the Midwest states. This should
suppress convection across central Alabama, and will remove severe
wording for Sunday. Increasing low level southwest flow and upper
height rises on Sunday will produce very warm afternoon
temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

58/rose

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

The main upper level trough is expected to slide through the region
late Sunday night through the overnight hours into Monday. This
upper wave will provide the forcing for showers and thunderstorms
across Central AL. There will be enough instability in place, along
with modest deep layer shear to support a few strong to severe
storms overnight Sunday night into Monday. After the initial upper
wave moves through, guidance suggests the surface boundary could
trigger additional convection during the afternoon/evening hours on
Monday as it moves through.

Drier conditions expected Tuesday through Friday as the main trough
remains to our east and broad ridging sets up to our west. Some
guidance tries to bring a few waves down in this northwesterly flow,
but this hasn`t been consistent. Most guidance shows the ridging
winning out leading to mostly dry conditions for much of the
upcoming week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024

Widespread MVFR cigs for areas along and east of I-65 thru 15Z,
with local IFR cigs at MGM/KTOI. Cigs will become above 3000 ft
agl by 16Z at all sites. Isolated to scattered showers and tstms
thru 00Z, mainly across north Alabama. Included PROB30 groups at
all TAF sites. TSTM activity should dissipate by 01Z.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon
and evening hours today and again late Sunday night through
Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at less
than 5 mph today, increasing to 6-12mph on Sunday. Min RH value
will be near or above 45 percent through Monday, with overnight
recoveries near 100%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  68  89  68 /  40  20  20  40
Anniston    86  70  89  70 /  30  20  10  30
Birmingham  88  71  91  71 /  30  20  10  40
Tuscaloosa  89  72  92  72 /  30  20   0  40
Calera      87  71  91  71 /  30  20   0  30
Auburn      85  71  87  70 /  30  20   0  10
Montgomery  89  71  92  72 /  30  20   0  10
Troy        89  70  91  72 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...58/rose