Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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297 FXUS64 KBMX 280812 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 312 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024 Dry conditions expected today as high pressure build into the area under northwesterly flow aloft. The main upper low slow shifts through the Great Lakes region today through Wednesday with little change in the overall synoptic pattern as we head into the middle part of the week. Some guidance tries to bring in a weak upper shortwave through the Mid-MS Valley during the day on Wednesday, which could lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms. However, the probability is low given the ridge and drier air mass in place. I`ve included 15-20% chance for rain/storms tomorrow afternoon/evening in the far western counties, but otherwise most of the area should remain rain-free. 25/Owen && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024 Weather conditions in the long term look to be dominated by rather progressive upper level flow, with several shortwaves zipping through periodically. Difference in timing/placement and strength of individual shortwaves among the various models leads to a somewhat low confidence forecast. Looks like one wave approaches the area on Friday, and another on Saturday, both if which could lead to periods of slightly enhanced POPs. Otherwise, we may be entering a more summertime weather regime, with daily diurnal convective chances being driven by mesoscale processes not handled well by the long range global models. /61/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024 VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. The exception will be ANB and potentially TOI where MVFR Vis is expected between roughly 6z and 12z. Some guidance tries to spread the fog into MGM, but confidence isn`t there right now to add it into the TAF. Otherwise, mostly a diurnal wind forecast across the area with light to variable winds increasing during the daytime hours before decreasing again during the evening. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions expected today and tomorrow with Min RHs dropping into the mid to upper 30% range. Northwesterly winds could be gusty at times this afternoon before becoming light and variable during the overnight periods. Moisture gradually increases as we go into Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 58 85 59 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 87 60 85 61 / 0 0 10 10 Birmingham 89 64 86 65 / 0 0 10 10 Tuscaloosa 90 63 86 65 / 0 0 10 20 Calera 89 64 85 65 / 0 0 10 10 Auburn 88 65 85 65 / 0 0 10 10 Montgomery 91 64 87 66 / 0 0 10 10 Troy 90 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25/Owen LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...25/Owen