Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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785 FXUS64 KBMX 270634 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 134 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2024 KEY MESSAGES... -Severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible overnight. The best chance north of I-20 after 2 am. -Severe thunderstorms possible again on Memorial Day, mainly in the afternoon and evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. It appears the tornado threat lessens with time as the storms move from north to south. Monitoring the severe thunderstorms developing north across the Ohio Valley this evening. Some activity is just beginning in the Missouri Bootheel with hints of additional development in northern Arkansas. Hi Res CAMS are starting agree with the timing of after 2am for northwestern areas near Hamilton, with potential isolated development ahead of a more organized line. Bulk Shear values around 60kts will be more than enough for organized storms. 0-3km SRH values 200-300 in spots, SBCAPE 2000-3000 in spots while hodographs support tornadoes late tonight. Therefore, will hold the timing and threats as they are. Please have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings especially during the overnight hours. Some differences appear in the model output and ultimate evolution of the storms during the morning hours on Memorial Day. Some weakening is expected as the storms enter the I-20 corridor and then re-intensification with chances of severe after noon, though Bulk Shear decreases. The biggest questions at this time are the where storms start re-intensification or if they weaken at all and storms continue from overnight and exit quicker to the southeast. This will have an effect on how large an area has a severe risk. The only thing that does look fairly agreeable is that the winds veer with time and the tornado threat should decrease with time. At any rate, be aware of the possibility of severe thunderstorms especially with outdoor activities on Memorial Day. No significant changes to the ongoing forecast and overall message. 75 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so the forecast remains mostly dry through the period. Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east, allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point, but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend, but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 Brisk southerly winds thru 15Z at 8-12kts with gusts to 20kts across the northern TAF sites. Low clouds with cigs arnd 1500 ft agl have already formed at MGM/TOI and these cigs will spread across all of Central Alabama by 09Z. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms will enter northwest Alabama arnd 09Z and reach the I-20 corridor by 12Z. The line of storms will contain frequent lightning and periods of intense rainfall. A few of the storms could produce wind gusts of 40-50 kts for areas along and north of I-20. The storms will weaken considerably after 14Z. The threat of storms will shift to areas south of I-20 this afternoon as surface front pushes southward. Outside convective activity, VFR conds expected after 18Z. The last of the storms will exit southeast Alabama arnd 02Z. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again late tonight into Monday. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at 6 to 12 mph today. Min RH values will in the upper 40s or above 50 percent through Monday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. Drier air builds in Tuesday with only isolated convection possible for Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 63 88 60 / 60 10 0 0 Anniston 87 65 88 61 / 60 10 0 0 Birmingham 88 67 89 64 / 40 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 90 67 91 65 / 40 10 0 0 Calera 88 67 90 65 / 40 10 0 0 Auburn 84 68 89 65 / 50 20 0 0 Montgomery 88 69 92 65 / 50 20 0 0 Troy 87 68 91 65 / 50 30 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...58/rose