655
FXUS64 KBMX 291748
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

High pressure will be over the southeast through tomorrow. Dry
weather and increasing clouds will be the main story for today,
with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of
year. Overnight through early Thursday, a shortwave will move
across the state, with models showing different resolutions of how
widely scattered activity will be through the morning. Most of the
western half of the state could see scattered rain with isolated
thunder, though instabilities will be limited. Any activity
should quickly weaken into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees low with expected increase in cloud cover and
northerly flow continuing over the state.


24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

We will remain in a largely mesoscale driven weather regime through
the long term portion of the forecast. Most POPs through the period
will be in the chance to slight chance category, as convective
systems to our west lose steam as they reach central Alabama. If we
were to pick out a period with somewhat enhanced rain chances, it
would be Saturday afternoon to Sunday. Otherwise, low confidence in
timing and placement of upper impulses leads to generally climo
level POPs. No extremes are anticipated in temperatures.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period, with
the exception of Thursday morning when scattered to isolated
showers and a rumble of thunder may be possible. Have left mention
of this activity out of each TAF for now due to uncertainty in
coverage and timing, and will adjust as needed.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions expected today with min RHs dropping near 30% for a
good portion of the area. Northwesterly winds should generally be
less than 7-10mph, but if we start to see increased mixing during
the day there could be a few wind gusts and RHs may drop lower.
Moisture begins to increase Thursday through Friday with min RHs
remaining near or above 50%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  81  58  82 /   0  10  20  20
Anniston    59  81  59  83 /   0  10  20  20
Birmingham  64  81  63  82 /  10  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  64  81  63  83 /  20  20  30  30
Calera      63  81  63  83 /  10  20  20  20
Auburn      64  81  63  81 /  10  10  20  20
Montgomery  67  81  66  83 /  10  20  20  20
Troy        65  83  64  83 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24