708
FXUS64 KBMX 281953
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
253 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

High pressure will develop over the MS River Valley and slowly
move east through the short term. Mid level flow will remain out
of the north today, limiting the amount of moisture advection to
the state, leaving mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Wednesday morning, as the high pressure
moves east, flow will shift to out of the southeast, bringing
warm and moist air beginning to advect into the western part of
the state. A shortwave will move across the south, causing showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop to the west of Alabama.
However, instability will be fairly limited, so models diverge on
how much activity will be over the state. Opted for a optimistic
scenario with an increase in clouds and an isolated small cell to
occur over western third of Central Alabama, but otherwise, the
area should remain mostly dry.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Updates made to long term for temperature trends and minor
adjusts to rain chances. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty on timing of impulses and shortwaves. There could be a
couple opportunities mid week for isolated rain chances, but
better chances arrive for the weekend as a shortwave crosses the
region.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Weather conditions in the long term look to be dominated by rather
progressive upper level flow, with several shortwaves zipping
through periodically. Difference in timing/placement and strength of
individual shortwaves among the various models leads to a somewhat
low confidence forecast. Looks like one wave approaches the area on
Friday, and another on Saturday, both if which could lead to periods
of slightly enhanced POPs. Otherwise, we may be entering a more
summertime weather regime, with daily diurnal convective chances
being driven by mesoscale processes not handled well by the long
range global models.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High pressure
will move over the state with high to mid clouds increasing on
Thursday.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday and Thursday,
but expect most of the area to be dry. Recovery RH values tonight
will be in the 80 to 90 percent range, with light 20ft winds. Minimum
RH values tomorrow afternoon will be in the 30-45 percent range
with 20ft winds from the northwest at 4-6mph. Moisture gradually
increases Thursday and Friday, with minimum RHs above 40 percent
and 20ft winds becoming southeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  85  60  79 /   0  10  20  20
Anniston    60  85  61  79 /   0  10  20  20
Birmingham  63  86  65  79 /   0  20  20  20
Tuscaloosa  63  88  66  82 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      63  88  65  82 /   0  20  20  20
Auburn      65  87  66  82 /   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  64  88  67  85 /   0  10  10  20
Troy        64  89  67  87 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24