590
FXUS65 KBOI 250324
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
924 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...A shortwave and weak cold front will move over the
area tonight bringing breezy conditions (west-northwest winds
10-20 mph) and scattered rain showers (50-80 percent chance)
through Saturday morning. Drier air will move into the area on
Saturday afternoon, but a slight chance of showers lingers over
the central ID mountains (20 percent chance). Then upper level
ridging will bring dry and warmer conditions Sunday through
Tuesday. Temperatures warm about 20 degrees from Todays highs by
Tuesday, with highs approaching 90 degrees in the lower
valleys. Current forecast on track with no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening along a weak cold front. Mountains obscured in showers
with brief MVFR conditions in precipitation. Snow level around 7000
ft MSL. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt along the
front. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered light rain showers through the evening. NW 5-
15 kt with brief variable gusts up to 20kt possible with the
showers.

Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR. Light showers through Saturday
morning, mainly in the mountains. Mountain obscuration Saturday
morning. VFR and dry Sunday. Surface winds W-NW 10-20 kt with
gusts 20-35 kt Saturday. Sunday winds W-NW 5-15 kt. Winds
strongest in the Magic Valley.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...The chance for
showers will continue overnight as an upper trough and cold
front dig into the Pac NW. High resolution models continue to
highlight e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mtns for the
greatest chance of precipitation (60-80%) and a slight chance
of thunderstorms through sunset. Further south, the chance for
measurable precipitation will range from 20-40% across lower
elevations, to 40-60% in the mountains. Thunderstorms will
generate gusty outflow winds to 40 mph through this evening,
mostly over Baker County and along the ID/OR border from Ontario
northwards. The frontal passage overnight will shift winds to
the W-NW and bring local gusts of 20-30 mph. The trough axis
pushes to the WY/ID border on Saturday bringing drier conditions
to SE Oregon while shower development continues across higher
terrain of SW Idaho. Northwest flow on the back side of the
trough will keep breezy conditions with widespread gusts of
20-30 mph through Saturday evening. Snow levels are around 7000
feet tonight, dropping as low as 5500 feet Saturday morning
behind the front. Any minor accumulation (up to 2 inches) will
be limited to sites above 7000 feet MSL through Saturday. Sunday
brings drier and warmer conditions, along with lighter winds,
as an upper ridge begins to build over the Intermountain NW.
Saturday is the coolest day of the weekend, warming to near
normal on Sunday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Cluster ensembles and
deterministic model data show widespread agreement in the
development of a ridge in the beginning of the long term period.
Above normal temperatures, with valley highs in the upper 80s
anticipated on Monday-Tuesday. Current model blends show a 50%
chance of highs reaching the 90s in Boise by Tuesday. By late
Tuesday, an upper level trough will begin to edge into the
Pacific northwest, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely
continue on Wednesday-Thursday, with model disparity in the
location of the upper level trough/cut off low through the end
of the long term period. Precipitation chances will be higher
over elevated terrain, with about a 20-30% chance of
precipitation over the Central ID mountains each afternoon and
10-15% chance over lower elevation valleys through Friday.
Temperatures will cool to near normal as the upper level low
moves into the region late Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SA