234
FXUS65 KBOI 040912
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
312 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...An upper level
ridge will build in over the Intermountain West today,
beginning and stark warming and drying trend for most of the
region through the short term period. Winds will begin to
strengthen in the afternoon due to a strong pressure gradient
between the ridge and an upper level low over Canada. The
strongest winds will be in southeast Oregon, with westerly
sustained winds expected to be around 15-20 mph with gusts to 40
mph. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the north today,
bringing a low chance (<20% chance) of showers and a stray
thunderstorm to the West Central Mountains. The better chance
for thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday afternoon-evening,
with high forecasted instability and some weak monsoonal
moisture from incoming southwest flow. Current forecasts
indicate the Owyhee Mountains and the Lower Snake Plain will see
the best chance for thunderstorms.

High temperatures today will start off around 5 degrees above
normal, with most lower valley locations seeing highs in the mid
80s. Temperatures will steadily climb through the week as the
ridge continues to build into our region from the southwest.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Several pushes of
moisture will increase precipitation chances for the region late
Friday and Saturday. However, models vary widely in resolving
the precipitation chances, so current forecasts show about a
10-20% chance of high based showers and thunderstorms on Friday
and Saturday. There is much better agreement in the forecast on
abnormally high temperatures, with our highs peaking at around
20 degrees above normal by Saturday. The Boise metro area will
likely see temperatures in the upper 90s, with about a 20%
chance that Boise will exceed 100F and a 50% chance that Ontario
will exceed 100F on Saturday. A weak shortwave trough looks to
move in by the end of the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures
and another chance of precipitation for most of the region on
Sunday night and Monday. Models diverge widely with the position
of the trough on Monday afternoon, with significant uncertainty
in the weather by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday with
scattered to broken mid-level clouds. Patchy fog in mountain
valleys this morning will mix out by mid morning. Surface winds:
variable less than 10 kt becoming W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20
kt mainly in SE OR.

KBOI...VFR. W-NW winds less than 7 kt, becoming SE less than 5
kt by 12Z, then variable less than 8 kt after 22Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA