Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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914 FXUS65 KBOU 290306 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 906 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms mainly over the Front Range and Palmer Divide continue until early evening. Storms may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph. - Higher afternoon thunderstorm potential on Wednesday, when a few severe storms will be possible, mainly for the rural plains. - Slightly cooler Thursday behind a cold front, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms each day through at least Saturday. - Drier/warmer conditions favored as we near early next week, but details become more murky Sunday onwards. && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Active evening in spots across the plains. Radar shows a mix of sub-severe to severe storms with the severe warned storms being across east Adams/Arapahoe counties and Washington County.Plenty of boundaries to go around as well which have helped initiate new storms. As far as the forecast goes, thunderstorms have extended into this evening, later than originally anticipated. Adjusted precipitation probabilities to reflect the storm activity across mainly the eastern portion of the plains. Over the next few hours, storms will weaken and move east. Before they do, there may be a few pulsy strong storms and a chance for severe on the plains. We`ll have to keep an eye on the less worked over areas such as the northeast corner where there is instability available. Hail would be the main threat with up to quarter size possible. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Currently, a few showers and storms hover along the southern foothills and Palmer Divide which can be seen on reflectivity. Southwest flow aloft remains weak on ACARS soundings. Storms continue to pulse up and quickly end; this pattern will likely continue given the marginal amount of instability and shear this evening. A robust storm or two could produce small hail but majority of showers and storms should remain non-severe. Models and soundings indicate large DCAPE values near 1000-1200 J/kg which could lead to storms producing wind gusts up to 45 mph through tonight. Low temperatures increase for the lower elevations sitting a few degrees above normal; normal low temperatures are expected for the high country. Southwesterly flow increases aloft as the next shortwave trough arrives to northeast Colorado early Wednesday morning. Diurnal thunderstorms and showers are possible once more Wednesday afternoon across the region. CAMs favor a dryline initializing slightly east of the I-25 corridor. This set-up combined with the favorable conditions, bulk shear 30-35kts and MU CAPE between 700- 1000 J/kg, could lead to a few severe storms along the eastern plains starting late Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across the plains Wednesday evening and be east of the area by midnight. Then a cold front will move south across the area towards sunrise Thursday morning. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday with readings in to the upper 70s to around 80F over northeast Colorado. Moisture decreases as well for Thursday behind the front. In addition to less moisture and instability, soundings show the airmass will be capped as well. Better moisture and instability will reside over southeast Colorado where scattered thunderstorms are expected. The northern extent for showers and storms Thursday looks to be around or slightly south of I-70. However, the GFS shows it will be a little warmer than the other models show, with showers and storms overcoming any capping. Thus, will keep a slight chance for showers and storms over the northern parts of the area just in case the GFS is on to something. For Friday and the weekend, west to southwest flow aloft will prevail. Temperatures will slowly climb each day reaching the upper 80s by Sunday. Better instability and moisture are expected to be in place Friday for a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a short wave trough moving across Colorado on Saturday. Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms if this holds true. However, with this system several days away, timing and track of this wave will likely change. Models generally agree Sunday will be drier with subsidence and drying behind the trough. Upper level ridging begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies early next week. This is expected to bring warm and dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 631 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 For the next hour or two, there is a chance for a few showers/storms in the vicinity of the terminals. This may bring brief variable gusts up to 30 kts with any nearby storms. Tonight, winds at southerly drainage at 08-14 kts. Confidence in the winds decreases for Wednesday. This is because of the uncertainty in how the Denver cyclone sets up toward the afternoon. Winds may end up more easterly at DEN toward the afternoon as a result and light northerly at BJC. There is a low chance for scattered thunderstorm in the afternoon (< 30%). There will likely be some shower/storm activity around the terminals (at least DEN). This will bring the usual threat of brief variable gusts 25-35 kts with convective showers/storms. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Mensch SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...Mensch