751
FXUS65 KBOU 230206
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
806 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Generally dry and quiet through tomorrow. A cold front will
   move in tomorrow afternoon and increase chances for showers and
   storms.

 - Showers expected to impact the region for parts of the end of
   the week and weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

A few light high based showers were occurring over portions of
the plains early this evening. However, probably won`t see much
more than sprinkle out of this activity as it moves out of the
area by midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Breezy westerly flow will remain in place aloft through the rest of
this afternoon with generally dry and quiet conditions. Though a few
isolated high-based showers will be possible out east this
afternoon, they would be few and far between.

Generally dry and quiet weather will persist across the forecast
area tomorrow as an upper-level trough begins to dig in from the
north-northwest. High temperatures will be in the 70s across the
plains, though much cooler across the higher terrain. As the upper
trough moves down from the north tomorrow afternoon, it will push a
cold front into Colorado, which will serve to quickly cool down
temperatures and initiate showers and storms across the mountains.
Storms will be relatively high-based, with gusty outflow winds and
locally heavy rainfall being the main concerns, though if a few
stronger storms manage to form and intensify some areas could see
some small hail. Best chance for stronger storms will be over the
far eastern zones, along the axis of the cold front as it moves
through.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Thursday Night - Sunday: Some busy weather is in store for north
central and northeastern Colorado for the end of the week and
through the weekend. An unsettled pattern is expected as a couple of
waves pass over and influence the region, with one wave Thursday
night into Friday and another wave late Saturday and through Sunday.
With the increased flow and forcing from these features, isolated to
scattered showers, and possibly thunderstorms, are expected along
the mountains. The greatest coverage of showers will be late
Thursday into early Friday, and then again mid Saturday and through
Sunday, when influence from these waves will be greatest. Along with
that, these waves will shove a couple of cold front southward across
the region during the same timeframes of interest. Additional
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
plains areas given the enhanced forcing along and immediately behind
these front, especially with the late Saturday and Sunday front.
Looking at temperatures, Friday will be the coolest behind behind
the first front, with temperatures falling to around and slightly
below seasonal values for late May. Saturday and Sunday rebound to
warm temperatures, as the stronger cold surge behind the second
front happens late Sunday. Given that, the weekend will warm to
around seasonal temperatures.

Monday - Tuesday: For the start of next week, quieter weather
returns to the area. A ridge will start to build and push across
north central and northeastern Colorado, bringing increased descent.
Ensemble model guidance are in good agreement about this pattern
change, leading to higher confidence in this evolution. With this
pattern in place, drier conditions are expected to prevail over the
region, especially on Tuesday. Temperatures early next week will
fluctuate some. Monday will be the coldest day given the stronger
cold front surge late Sunday. The Tuesday, temperatures rise again
as the ridge continues to build, warming much of the area up back to
above seasonal values for mid May.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Denver cyclone was moving across the airport and will continue
moving northeastward. Winds should turn more NW by 00z. Not real
sure about how things will transition this evening.  Highest
confidence is they will go from NW to SW to drainage by 06z.
On Thu, winds will transition from drainage to SW by mid to late
morning with gusty winds up to 25 mph by 19z.  Late in the
aftn winds may go more WNW with gusts up to 25 mph. Otherwise
VFR conditions thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Garberoglio
LONG TERM...Simcoe
AVIATION...RPK