Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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705 FXUS65 KBOU 241718 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1118 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures through this weekend with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be most numerous in the mountains on Saturday afternoon. - Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the plains Sunday, but green fuels will limit the fire danger. - Warm through the coming week with limited late day thunderstorm activity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Dew points are pretty low across the forecast area this morning. They range from the 20s to lower 30s F for most areas. Little to no convective cloudiness developing, even in the mountains, at this time. Little to no CAPE progged on all the models this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are about 15 F cooler today across the plains than they were yesterday at this time. Will leave a few showers and storms going in the high mountains late day, and will decrease and zero-out pops for the rest of the CWA for this update. && .SHORT TERM /Through tonight/... Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A shortwave trough to the north will shift eastward into the Dakotas through the day today. In its wake, weak ridging will move over the area bringing subsident flow into CO. Forecast soundings show dry conditions for the day with increasing upper level moisture after 6 PM. Increasing mid level lapse rates indicate enough instability present for an isolated thunderstorm to develop, but with limited low level moisture, chances are scarce. Max temperatures will be cooler than Thursday and remain below normal for this time of year. Clouds will increase from west to east in the afternoon as the next shortwave trough approaches the region. It should be a nice day across the forecast area! && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 415 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A short wave trough will move over Colorado on Saturday. There are minor differences in the timing, with the faster timing spreading showers into the mountains Saturday morning with the best lift onto the plains in the afternoon. Slower model runs are about 6 hours behind and would delay the mountain convection until midday and the plains until mid afternoon. While the forcing isn`t that strong, coverage in the mountains should still be pretty good as there`s nothing to stop it. The jet position may keep most of the activity north of I-70. On the plains limited low level moisture will limit the activity, but scattered thunderstorms over the northern part look good. There will be some wind again with a weak front accentuated by shower outflow in the afternoon and evening, and downslope winds behind the trough possibly producing 40-50 mph gusts over the ridge and east slopes of the Front Range for a little while in the evening. Sunday will be drier though there will likely still be enough instability for isolated late day storms. Then temperatures will warm as a ridge moves over the west. Monday will likely be dry, though an isolated storm is still possible. The ridge builds through mid week, but there will likely be some moisture return on the plains with low thunderstorm coverage from the Front Range eastward. Probably not much intensity with limited moisture and shear Tuesday and Wednesday, but there could be more to work with later in the week with continued southeast low level winds and possibly an approaching weak trough. NBM stays in the mid 80s but we could approach 90 if the cloud cover stays pretty limited. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/... Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. Southeasterly winds are the rule at DIA this morning. There is a weak Denver cyclone in place. Most of the models keep the southeasterlies in place well into the evening before they go to normal drainage patterns a bit after 06Z. There doesn`t look to be any showers or thunderstorms, nor should there be any ceiling issues. && $$ UPDATE.......RJK SHORT TERM...Bonner LONG TERM....Gimmestad AVIATION.....RJK