Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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142 FXUS65 KBOU 250611 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1211 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures through this weekend with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be most numerous in the mountains on Saturday afternoon. - Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the plains Sunday, but green fuels will limit the fire danger. - Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Quite a bit of mid and high level moisture moving across with considerable cloud cover. However, lower levels are dry so no precip is occurring. Clouds will linger overnight with low temps warmer than last night. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/... Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Satellite pictures are showing limited convective cloudiness, mostly over the mountains and foothills. There is very little on the radars. The winds across most of the CWA are pretty weak now, more so over the plains. Temperatures over the plains are remaining in the 60s F. Models show moderately strong zonal flow aloft tonight. It becomes southwesterly on Saturday. Models continue the show dry conditions tonight into Saturday morning. By late Saturday, precipitable water values increase into the 0.30-0.80 inch range by late afternoon. There is no CAPE progged this evening for the CWA, with some CAPE on Saturday for most area. Values are below 1000 J/kg. Will leave the high pops in the mountains with 10-40%s over the plains by later in the afternoon. Friday`s highs are 3-6 C warmer than this afternoons highs. && .LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/... Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A shortwave trough will move through our forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. There will be lingering showers and storms across the northeast corner of Colorado Saturday evening. There will also be rain and snow showers in the mountains on the western slope. Any snow will mainly fall above 10,000 feet with a couple of inches possible on the mountain tops. There shouldn`t be any travel impacts from this event. Northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will increase on Sunday. Some gusts could reach 40 mph across the northeast plains. There will be subsident flow on the backside of the departing trough which will limit shower and storm activity. Nonetheless, a few showers could form over the higher terrain and the far northeast corner. There will be a strong ridge aloft that will be over Colorado Monday through Wednesday with troughing moving in on Thursday and Friday. Monday will likely be totally dry and very pleasant for Memorial Day. Southeasterly flow at the surface will begin to bring in Gulf of Mexico moisture on Tuesday and this moisture will linger through the rest of the week. Showers and storms will start as isolated on Tuesday and then will increase in coverage to Wednesday through Friday. There may be a small threat of severe weather Wednesday through Friday as models are indicating moderate instability and shear. The limiting factor to the severe weather will be a strong inversion between the relatively cool and moist boundary layer and the warm and dry elevated mixed layer aloft. Any shortwave troughs that move through during this time may lead to better coverage of storms but these shortwaves will be hard to time and predict this far out. Otherwise, temperatures will warm above normal for the work week although there are no 90 degree highs expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/... Issued at 1157 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Winds have gone more easterly than anticipated at DEN tonight, we are expecting a more southerly component to return in the next few hours. Early tomorrow afternoon (~19Z), southwest winds are likely with gusts up to 30 mph, then after roughly 21Z some passing showers are likely over all airports. These are expected to be high based showers that could produce some gusty and erratic outflows up to 40 mph. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM... Danielson AVIATION...Bonner