630
FXUS65 KBOU 250202
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures through this weekend with isolated to
  scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Storms will be most
  numerous in the mountains on Saturday afternoon.

- Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the plains
  Sunday, but green fuels will limit the fire danger.

- Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day
  thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday
  through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Quite a bit of mid and high level moisture moving across with
considerable cloud cover.  However, lower levels are dry so no
precip is occurring. Clouds will linger overnight with low temps
warmer than last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Satellite pictures are showing limited convective cloudiness,
mostly over the mountains and foothills. There is very little on
the radars. The winds across most of the CWA are pretty weak now,
more so over the plains. Temperatures over the plains are
remaining in the 60s F.

Models show moderately strong zonal flow aloft tonight.  It becomes
southwesterly on Saturday.  Models continue the show dry conditions
tonight into Saturday morning.  By late Saturday, precipitable
water values increase into the 0.30-0.80 inch range by late
afternoon. There is no CAPE progged this evening for the CWA, with
some CAPE on Saturday for most area. Values are below 1000 J/kg.
Will leave the high pops in the mountains with 10-40%s over the
plains by later in the afternoon. Friday`s highs are 3-6 C warmer
than this afternoons highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A shortwave trough will move through our forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night. There will be lingering showers and storms across
the northeast corner of Colorado Saturday evening. There will also
be rain and snow showers in the mountains on the western slope. Any
snow will mainly fall above 10,000 feet with a couple of inches
possible on the mountain tops. There shouldn`t be any travel impacts
from this event.

Northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will increase on Sunday.
Some gusts could reach 40 mph across the northeast plains. There
will be subsident flow on the backside of the departing trough which
will limit shower and storm activity. Nonetheless, a few showers
could form over the higher terrain and the far northeast corner.

There will be a strong ridge aloft that will be over Colorado Monday
through Wednesday with troughing moving in on Thursday and Friday.
Monday will likely be totally dry and very pleasant for Memorial
Day. Southeasterly flow at the surface will begin to bring in Gulf
of Mexico moisture on Tuesday and this moisture will linger
through the rest of the week. Showers and storms will start as
isolated on Tuesday and then will increase in coverage to
Wednesday through Friday. There may be a small threat of severe
weather Wednesday through Friday as models are indicating moderate
instability and shear. The limiting factor to the severe weather
will be a strong inversion between the relatively cool and
moist boundary layer and the warm and dry elevated mixed layer
aloft. Any shortwave troughs that move through during this time
may lead to better coverage of storms but these shortwaves will be
hard to time and predict this far out. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm above normal for the work week although there are no 90
degree highs expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Winds should transition to more SE in the next hour and then to
southerly by 03z. Overnight winds will stay south but then go SW
by 16z. By 19z, expect gusty southwest winds up to 30 mph which
will continue thru aftn. Also may see a few high based showers
after 21z with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Otherwise VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM... Danielson
AVIATION...RPK