Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
670
FNUS75 KBOU 201009
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
409 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, continuing overnight.
However, chances of wetting rain will remain fairly low through
tonight with more of a threat of briefly gusty winds with this
activity. Winds today will be light and variable but should try to
maintain an easterly component through the day. Today should be a
few degrees cooler than yesterday with humidity remaining near
40%.
A more organized round of showers and a few thunderstorms is
expected for Tuesday, with the best chance of precipitation coming
between 12-5 PM. Showers may linger into Tuesday evening or early
Tuesday night. In general, the precipitation forecast calls for
about 0.1-0.2 inches in the spot forecast area. Tuesday will again
be cooler with RH hovering between 40-50%, with winds turning back
to the west or northwest and gradually increasing in speeds.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms after 1200 until 1400, then chance
of rain showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3 until 1400, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0700, then southeast
5 to 8 mph until 1500, then east around 5 mph.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL until 1200, then 6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 0700, then south 9 to 18 mph
until 1700, then southwest.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1200, then
good until 1300, then very good until 1400,
then good until 1600, then fair until 1700,
then good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55 45 47 45 35 32 43 58 69 73 76 77
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 30 30 30 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4
Temp............39 40 41 45 50 54 56 58 59 59 61 58
RH..............84 86 81 71 61 52 47 43 42 42 41 45
20 FT wind dir..N NE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E SW
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3
20 FT wind gust.6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 1.7 2.0 3.0 3.7 5.4 6.6 6.9 5.5 5.0 5.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW S SW
Transp wind spd.7 9 9 12 14 16 17 18 15 13 13 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 13 14 20 36 53 81 106 90 60 55 67
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P F G VG G G F G
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms until 2100. Chance of rain
showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
2100 until 0300.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms until 0300.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
2000.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph until 2200, then light
until 2300, then west around 8 mph until 2400,
then light until 0300, then west 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72 77 81 81 84 83 84 81 78 74 73 72
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1
Temp............57 56 49 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 38 38
RH..............45 47 60 67 69 75 77 77 77 80 81 83
20 FT wind dir..W W W SW N NW N NW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT wind gust.9 9 12 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 1.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW NE W W E W W W W
Transp wind spd.15 12 8 8 7 8 7 6 7 9 10 8
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52 19 6 6 6 6 5 4 6 6 6 5
SmokeDispersion.F P P P P P P P P P P P
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 0900 until 1200, then rain
showers and chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................6 percent increasing to 53 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900, then 2 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0700, then west to
northwest 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 0900.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700, then 3700 ft AGL
until 1000, then 6300 ft AGL until 1500, then
4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph until 0900, then 17 to 24
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then fair until 0900, then
good until 1100, then very good until 1400,
then good until 1500, then fair until 1600,
then good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68 68 68 68 76 84 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 10 10 10 50 50 50 50 50 50
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 80 80 80 80 80 80
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............38 37 41 43 47 50 52 51 50 48 46 44
RH..............83 81 71 64 55 47 45 46 50 57 58 57
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W NW NW NW NW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 8
20 FT wind gust.6 7 7 7 7 9 12 9 9 12 12 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.3 6.2 7.2 6.0 4.8 3.5 3.8 4.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W SW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 14 17 21 21 22 22 21 18 17 21 24
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 25 46 77 97 117 137 106 78 53 69 86
SmokeDispersion.P P F G G VG VG VG G F G G
$$
Forecaster...Hiris
Requested by...Luke Finn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414199.3/BOU
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov