Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
334
FNUS75 KBOU 191108
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
508 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION... Today will be mild with a mix of clouds and sun.
There will be west winds around 10 mph with gusts near the 23 mph
threshold. When there are no showers or storms overhead, the gusts
will likely stay just below 23 mph. However, it is expected that
weak showers will form in the afternoon. Given the dry airmass
near the surface, these showers could create gusty winds up to 40
mph. The most likely time for these showers would be after 1pm.
There will be excellent smoke dispersal for most of the day. The
precip amounts look very light, likely less than a tenth of an
inch if it does rain. It does not appear much of a mountain wave
or inversion will be in place this morning.
A cold front will move across the spot location early Monday
morning shifting winds to the east. The cooler temperatures and
weaker winds will result in fair to good smoke dispersal. There
will again be a chance of afternoon thunderstorms with
thunderstorms becoming likely in the evening. Some of these
thunderstorms could have more precip with them and between a tenth
to half an inch of rain is expected.
Tuesday should be quite cool and cloudy with rain expected.
Wednesday and Thursday will warm up and dry out although light
afternoon showers can`t be ruled out.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................6 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2 until 1500, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 9700 ft AGL after
1200.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph until 1000, then 24 to 29
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good until 1000, then
excellent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54 48 48 38 41 46 52 45 43 43 43 43
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3
Temp............44 46 51 58 60 63 66 66 67 69 67 65
RH..............64 62 51 38 35 33 28 27 26 25 26 29
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 7 8 10 13 13 13 13 12 12
20 FT wind gust.12 9 9 12 13 16 21 21 22 21 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 1.3 4.0 7.1 8.9 10 10 10 10 8.6 8.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.15 14 13 20 25 25 28 28 26 25 25 25
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 14 69 156 195 249 250 231 223 190 186
SmokeDispersion.P P P G E E E E E E E E
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR.................4 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph until 0400, then
southwest around 5 mph until 0500, then
variable up to 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
2000.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 26 mph until 2000, then 8 to 14 mph
until 0300, then light until 0400, then west
around 8 mph until 0500, then light.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 1900. Poor after 0200.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27 32 26 23 22 20 18 20 23 26 31 35
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 60 55 51 50 48 46 45 45 43 42 41
RH..............30 34 43 52 53 55 60 60 61 62 67 67
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW S
20 FT wind spd..12 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 3
20 FT wind gust.18 15 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 9 7 6
Mix hgt (kft)...7.4 5.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W SE
Transp wind spd.26 20 13 14 14 13 10 12 8 7 8 7
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..170 86 10 10 9 8 6 7 5 4 5 4
SmokeDispersion.E G P P P P P P P P P P
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 1100, then
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0800, then southeast
5 to 8 mph until 1500, then east around 5 mph
until 1600, then variable up to 5 mph until
1700, then northeast around 5 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
1200.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 5400 ft AGL after
1200.
Transport winds.....Light winds until 0700, then south 9 to 16 mph
until 1600, then southwest 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then good until 1500, then
fair.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50 43 34 38 43 51 63 63 65 67 71 75
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4
Temp............40 42 44 48 53 56 58 60 61 62 62 60
RH..............69 68 64 58 49 48 45 45 42 41 41 43
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E NE NE
20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 5
20 FT wind gust.3 6 7 9 9 12 12 12 9 7 6 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.5 3.8
Transp wind dir.SE S S S S S SW S SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.7 9 12 13 13 16 16 16 15 13 14 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 13 21 31 37 63 80 91 73 57 52 47
SmokeDispersion.P P P P P G G G G F F F
$$
Forecaster...Danielson
Requested by...Luke Finn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414199.2/BOU
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL luke.finn@usda.gov,michael.smith6@usda.gov