115
FXUS61 KBOX 012359
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
759 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to move east tonight and tomorrow over
New England keep the region dry. Low chance for showers Sunday
night with a weak low passing over the region.  High pressure
brings warm and dry weather through the middle of next week,
then the weather pattern becomes unsettled toward the end of the
week as a frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
751 PM Update:

Nice early summer evening underway across Southern New England
with high pressure in control. Radar and obs show the RI/MA
South Coast sea breeze has made it quite a ways inland although
that should wash itself out shortly.

With clear skies and light winds, temps should fall pretty
quickly after sundown with good radiational cooling expected.
Some of the NAM-based models indicate patchy radiation fog in
the outlying valleys that are more prone to fog formation, but
it`s been dry and hasn`t rained recently. Vast majority of
locations are not expected to see fog; if any patches develop,
it would be towards sunrise in NW MA, the CT River Valley and
in/around I-495 in MA and also be rather brief. Lows were left
unchanged as they seem on track.

Previous discussion:

June 1st, marks the official start to the North Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Should go without saying it`s only a matter of
when, not if, a hurricane makes landfall along our coastline.
While there have had numerous topical storms, August of 1991
brought Hurricane Bob, the last landfalling hurricane in
southern New England. Take time today, this weekend, or this
month to review whether or not you reside in an evacuation zone
and what items you can buy right now to build out your emergency
kit. Because, let`s be honest, waiting to last minute will feel
as you are out shopping/fighting the crowds on Black Friday,
minus the deals/savings. For details on how to prepare for this
hurricane season please visit this link: noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

Upper level ridge, rising heights, and subsidence aloft has lead to
an absolutely gorgeous day with little to no clouds in the sky. This
trend of no clouds will continue into tonight which will allow for
good radiational cooling. With dew points only in the 30s and 40s
across the region, overnight lows will drop into the low 50s region
wide, with our typical radiators in the mid to upper 40s. There is a
low chance that patchy radiation fog forms overnight in eastern
Massachusetts, however, low dewpoints and early sunrises should keep
it from becoming more widespread.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge axis shifts east tomorrow allowing for high clouds to filter
in ahead of a weak shortwave trough. Shouldn`t have a huge effect on
high temperatures tomorrow still expected to reach the low 80s
inland and low 70s along the coasts. Light SSW winds tomorrow with
Localized sea breezes developing again in the late morning/early
afternoon.

The weak shortwave moves through Sunday night. This could allow for
some weak rain showers overnight mainly across western MA and CT.
Not expecting a soaking rain with weak forcing and dry low levels.
Temps overnight stay in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly cloudy
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:

* Tranquil and dry weather Mon thru Wed with mild temps inland,
  cooler near the coast.

* Increasing threat of rain/t-storms late in the week and early
  weekend - timing still a bit unclear.

Details:

Overall tranquil weather conditions through at least Wed looks to be
on tap for Southern New England based on the 12z global ensembles.
High pressure over the Gulf of Maine looks to bring a couple days of
onshore flow near the coast for Mon and Tue, perhaps with scattered
low clouds near the immediate coast. Full sun inland with temps
being considerably warmer (e.g. lower to mid 80s inland, vs upper
60s/lower 70s coastal areas). 500 mb heights then start to rise Tue
into Wed with SWly flow developing at sfc, favoring more widespread
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Pattern change toward more unsettled weather then develops around
Thurs into late week/early weekend. 500 mb ridging weakens and
shifts eastward, to be replaced by pretty strong 500 mb height falls
associated with an anomalous closed upper low located over the Gt
Lakes region as we move into Fri which stays more or less in place
into Sat. A frontal system is expected to move across Southern New
England, and while the exact timing is still a bit unclear and
sensitive to how quickly the 500 mb ridge breaks down, felt NBM PoPs
into the solid Chance range Wed night through the first part of
Thurs were a bit too aggressive given the rather amplified pattern.
Reduced these favoring a drier Thurs, although PoPs then increase
more significantly into Thurs night into Fri following loose
consensus in the individual global models. Thus late in the week
looks to be our next chance for showers or t-storms, and while 925-
850 mb temps favor warmer temps than indicated, more cloud cover
around should keep highs in the 70s although with a bit of an uptick
in humidity level.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of Today... High confidence.

VFR and dry. NNW winds less than 10 knots with seabreezes along
the coast.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Indicated a TEMPO for IFR patchy mist toward pre- dawn hrs
at BED toward early morning but would be short-lived. Winds
becoming light, although period of E/ESE winds develops later
tonight for the eastern MA coastal areas with speeds around 6-10
kt.

Sunday and Sunday Night: High confidence.

VFR and dry. WSW to SW winds less than 10 knots will give way
to afternoon seabreezes along the coast. For the evening, will
see increased cloud cover over western terminals but still in
the VFR range.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds around 10 kt
should shift to E/ESE with speeds around 10 kt around 02z with
period of onshore flow, which become light southerly around
daybreak. Sea breezes again develop Sunday around 14-16z.

KBDL TAF... High confidence in TAF. VFR with light/variable
winds tonight. Winds become light southerly around daybreak,
speeds under 5 kt which then shift to SW around 4-7 kt early
Sunday afternoon.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Sunday night... High confidence.

Winds turn ESE this evening and become gusty up to 20 knots
through about sunrise tomorrow. Otherwise tomorrow is shaping
up to be another nice day with light southerly winds and
filtered sunshine with high clouds. Seas remain 1-2 feet for
the entire period.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/KP
NEAR TERM...Loconto/KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/KP
MARINE...Loconto/KP