349
FXUS64 KBRO 041718 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Message:

*Above normal temperatures producing heat advisory and excessive
heat warning conditions

Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the
short term. Afternoon high temperatures will easily reach and exceed
the century mark for most inland locations today and Wednesday, with
coastal areas recording mid to upper 90s. A heat advisory has been
issued through 1 PM this afternoon for all areas except the barrier
islands, with an excessive heat warning taking over for Starr, Jim
Hogg, Brooks, Kenedy, and Hidalgo Counties.

Coastal counties especially will see breezy and gusty southeast
winds. Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Low temperatures tonight
will also be a few degrees above normal and will generally range
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. A sliver of Zapata County is in
a general thunderstorm outlook area for tonight. There is a weak
signal for Sierra Madre Oriental convection to the west this
evening, and a few cells could drift toward the CWA. Confidence is
on the low side for now. Rip current risk has been pegged at
high for today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Broad 500 mb high pressure, varying between northwest Mexico and
the Four Corners area of the United States, will continue to be an
oppressive weather influence over the BRO CWFA. This synoptic set-
up will produce dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley through the long term forecast period. The most
recent drought map for the Lone Star State indicates Abnormally
Dry to Moderate Drought conditions across much of Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, and no improvement is likely when the
newest map is released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also
anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and
relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for
portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Thursday and Monday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the
remainder of the long term period daylight hours.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico
and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a generally
breezy onshore flow through the period, and a WIND ADVISORY is not
expected to be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to give way to MVFR ceilings
this evening through tonight and into Wednesday morning. Breezy to
windy southeasterly winds are expected to gradually diminish this
evening into tonight. AWWs are in effect for both BRO and HRL for
occasional non-convective wind gusts to 35 kts through this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Strong high pressure over the Gulf will support moderate to fresh
southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas. Small
craft should exercise caution today. Low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters tonight and
Wednesday.

(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Surface high pressure will steadily build into the western Gulf of
Mexico through the period, weakening the pressure gradient. Although
generally moderate winds and seas are anticipated along the Lower
Texas Coast, wind speeds and/or sea heights may occasionally require
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  98  81  97 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               80 100  79  99 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 82 103  81 102 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         81 107  79 103 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  89  82  88 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     82  95  81  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248-254-255-351-
     354-355.

     Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ249>253-353.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ249>253-353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...56-Hallman