342
FXUS64 KBRO 171952
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
252 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms came through Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley this morning. While there was a good bit of rain that
fell in the area along with some reports of hail as well. With the
atmosphere already worked over this morning chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the evening and tonight are very low.

Conditions for tonight are expected to be mostly cloudy and warm
with most lows in the 70s. Hazy and humid conditions are expected to
persist through tonight and the rest of the short term forecast
period. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday night as well.

As for tomorrow, high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s,
with lower 90s along the coast and increasing further inland to the
upper 90s with most of Zapata in the triple digits. Models currently
do not show any regions close to Heat Advisory criteria at this
current point. With a mid-level ridge moving in aloft, Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be entering another period of
hot temperatures. Moderate risk of Rip Currents continue through
tomorrow at the local beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A mid-level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
will continue to be the main influence for the long term period.
With the mid-level ridge in place and dry air in the middle to upper
levels of the atmosphere, rain chances are expected to be very low.
While on the surface, winds are expected to remain out of the
southeast for the duration of the long term forecast period, which
will allow for plenty of low-level moisture flow to move into the
region and thus keeping the air very humid. The combination of heat
and humidity will raise concerns for Heat Advisories. While Monday
does seem to be very borderline at this point with max heat indices
around 110. Temperatures are expected to continue to increase
through the long term forecast period, and the heat indices continue
to climb as well. Tuesday through Friday currently appear to be more
likely to need Heat Advisories as the heat indices over 111 are more
widespread on those days. Current model projections show that the
max heat index at 116 for Thursday and Friday. Thus a possible
Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches might be needed. The NWS
HeatRisk Tool also highlights Monday through Thursday of having
major to extreme impacts from the heat. Future shifts will continue
to monitor this situation. Remember to stay hydrated, limit outside
activities, and wear light, loose clothing to reduce heat risk
effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Mostly MVFR ceiling are expected to persist through the TAF period
at all TAF sites. Could see a few breaks that would allow for some
VFR ceilings, but low-level clouds are still expected to linger
around the region. Some IFR conditions are possible during the
overnight hours tonight along with some reduced visibilities due
to some patchy fog. Winds are expected to be light and mostly out
of the northeast for the TAF period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Tonight through Saturday Night...Light to moderate winds along with
low to moderate seas will result in favorable conditions along the
Lower Texas Coast through Saturday night.

Sunday through Next Friday...Light to moderate onshore flow with low
to moderate seas are expected to persist through Monday morning.
Afterwards, through next Friday during the afternoons a locally
enhanced pressure gradient will generate a bit stronger winds that
will require Small Craft Exercise Caution during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  93  78  94 /  30  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  94  74  95 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 75  98  77  99 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  98  75  99 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  85  79  85 /  30  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  89  77  90 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz