167
FXUS64 KBRO 291727
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

An impressive looking MCS over South Texas early this morning per
recent satellite imagery. BRO radar currently shows strong
convection over eastern Cameron County and across the Lower Texas
Gulf waters. These storms had a history of developing and then
redeveloping along the gust fronts overnight as they propagate
across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The stratiform
clouds in the wake of the MCS, may provide some relief from the heat
today as slightly drier and more stable air should keep temperatures
lower than in previous days.

Low rain chances (around 20 percent) will continue today and tonight
as the mid-level shortwave continues to track toward the Mid Texas
Coast in combination with deep moisture in place and lingering
outflow boundaries across the area. SPC has all of Deep South Texas
in a general thunderstorm risk for today and tonight.

Otherwise, another warm day is expected today with highs in the mid
to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from around 103 to 110
degrees during the afternoon hours. A few locations may reach or
exceed a 111 degrees for a brief time during the afternoon. With the
potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms and
the increase "left over" clouds from the overnight convection,
temperatures are expected to be several degrees lower today.
Therefore, have decided not to issue a Heat Advisory for today. Lows
tonight should fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs on Thursday,
a few degrees warm than today, will range from the 80s at the
beaches, mid to upper 90s across the eastern half of the CWA and the
triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains. A Heat Advisory may be
needed for portions of the region on Thursday.

There is a Moderate rip current risk along area beaches today
through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The mid-level ridge continues to be the driving force for the
weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal with Heat Advisories
being needed for almost every day during the long term forecast
period. While the heat indices are expected to be in the range of
105 to 114 through the long term forecast period. Friday seems to
be a very borderline day on if a Heat Advisory will be needed.
Will need to further shifts to continue to monitor how the models
handle the heat indices leading up to Friday. Next opportunity for
rain looks to be Friday night with passage of another mid-level
shortwave. Otherwise, Heat Advisories are likely for the inland
counties within the CWA. The pressure gradient is expected to
strengthen this weekend resulting in the possibly of Wind
Advisories near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions across the region with generally light
winds in wake of last night`s convection. Expect light and
variable winds to gradually return to the southeast around 5-10
knots through the afternoon hours and persist through the TAF
period. Stratus clouds will develop after 02-03Z at BRO and HRL,
and closer to 04Z at MFE. VFR should return by 13-15Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Now through Thursday: Generally favorable conditions are expected
as light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas
prevail. There may be a brief period of Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions this afternoon, mainly along the Laguna Madre,
due to occasional higher wind gusts. Low rain chances will exist
today and tonight.

Thursday night through Tuesday...Moderate southeasterly winds and
moderate seas are likely through early next week. With a thermal
low over Mexico and high pressure over the Gulf, the pressure
gradient is going to be enhanced, which will result in Small Craft
Exercise Caution. Small Craft Advisories become more likely by
Friday and last through the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  81  95  82 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               97  79  97  79 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 98  80  99  81 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  79 102  80 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  82  87  83 /  20  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  80  92  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...22-Garcia