Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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237 FXUS64 KBRO 031140 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Key Message: *Above normal temperatures Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Yesterday, a new record high temperature was set at Brownsville, where a 99 degree mark eclipsed the 97 degree record set in 2018. Afternoon high temperatures will reach and exceed the century mark for most inland locations today and Tuesday, with coastal areas recording mid to upper 90s. A heat advisory has been issued for this afternoon for all areas but the immediate coast, with advertised heat index values of 111 to 115 degrees. Coastal counties especially will see breezy and gusty southeast winds. Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Low temperatures tonight will be a few degrees above normal. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The RG Plains and Upper Valley are in a general thunderstorm outlook area for tonight. There is a weak signal for Sierra Madre Oriental convection to the west this evening, and a few cells could drift toward the CWA. Confidence is on the low side for now. Rip current risk has been pegged at moderate for today and tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Sunday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 500 mb high pressure, varying between northwest Mexico and the Four Corners area of the United States, will remain the main weather influence over the BRO CWFA. This pattern will produce dry weather across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the long term forecast period. Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the remainder of the daylight hours of the period. Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a breezy to windy onshore flow through the period. Despite the enhanced pressure gradient, a WIND ADVISORY is not expected to be needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 MVFR ceilings now at all sites should scatter out to VFR as the day progresses and moderate to strong southeast winds develop along the coast. Winds will diminish to moderate late this evening and low clouds will return with MVFR ceilings tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Strong high pressure over the Gulf will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate to slightly elevated seas. Small craft should exercise caution today. Low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible on the Gulf waters tonight and Tuesday. (Tuesday Night through Sunday) A gradual improvement in marine conditions is anticipated during the period, as an enhanced pressure gradient is weakened due to surface high pressure building into the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisory winds and/or seas at the beginning of the period will transition to Small Craft Exercise Caution, before finally settling on generally moderate winds and seas during the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 83 96 83 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 98 80 99 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 100 82 101 82 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 80 104 80 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 82 88 83 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 82 94 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-353. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...54-BHM