139
FXUS64 KBRO 241729
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1229 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Extreme and Dangerous Heat Today through Saturday
- High Rip Current Risk at local Beaches through Saturday
- Small Craft Advisories on the Laguna Madre Today

The heat is on and will stay on through Saturday and persist for the
holiday weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories (that
were issued yesterday remain in tact with today`s round of Heat
indices to range from 110 to approx. 120F degrees. Another round of
Heat Warnings and/or Heat Advisories are likely tomorrow with the
500mb ridge remaining in tact and the heat dome associated with it
still sporting 850mb temperatures of 25-28C. The NWS Experimental
Heat Risk remains at the Extreme Level (4 of 4) with plenty of
sunshine today and Saturday and elevated ovenight heat indices
increasing the probability of heat related illness and impacts
for heat-sensitive populations and industries.

This type of extreme heat will be very dangerous for anyone spending
time outside this weekend. Taking the necessary precautions will be
vital to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses. It is highly
recommended to drink plenty of water, even if you do not feel
thirsty, take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, and wear
light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.

Local pressure gradient between surface high pressure over the
Western Gulf and a thermal low over NE Mexico to maintain breezy to
windy afternoons and breezy conditions overnight. 925-850mb layered
winds of 20-30kts will translate to surface wind gusts of 30-35
knots slightly lower than Thursday.   The stronger winds to spread
over the coastal waters with a Small Craft Advisory issued for the
Laguna Madre today and a High Risk of rip currents along area
beaches today through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The BRO CWFA will generally remain on the northern periphery of
500 mb high pressure centered along the upper east coast of Mexico
through the period. This will have the result of producing dry
weather for a majority of the time. However, the passage of a few
mid-level shortwaves along the top of the ridge will have the
potential to produce isolated convection Monday night through
Tuesday night over far western Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley.

Meanwhile, temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and
overnight lows are forecast. A combination of Heat Advisory and
Excessive Heat Warning will likely be needed across Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. For
Wednesday and Thursday, however, cooler high temperatures may
result in these products not being needed for these days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Through 18z Saturday....As of this update, VFR-MVFR conditions
(mainly due to haze restricting visibilities between 3-6 miles) were
taking place at the TAF sites under sunny to mostly sunny skies. VFR
ceilings with some MVFR visibilities should continue through the
rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. As we shift into
tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again over the
area. During the day on Saturday, ceilings/sky conditions could
improve/return back to VFR levels. However, MVFR visibilities
(due to haze) looks to be an issue through the 18z TAF period,
regardless of the ceilings.

Southeast winds 10-20 kts look to continue through the 18z TAF
period. Winds are expected to gust between 20-30 kts during the day.
At night, wind gusts are expected to subside, however, it will still
remain breezy at times with sustained winds between 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The enhanced pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico persist
through Saturday. Surface ridge extending westward over the Gulf
to combine with a thermal low over NE Mexico and S Texas to
maintain moderate to fresh and occasional stronger periods of
southeast winds and a moderate sea state. The strong winds support
Small Craft Advisories along the Laguna Madre and Exercise
Caution on the Gulf waters today and likely continuing into this
evening and Saturday.

(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to possible Small Craft
Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast
courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  98  82  97 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               79 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 81 102  81 105 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         80 105  80 107 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  87  82  88 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  94  80  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ248>253-353.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ254-255-351-354-
     355.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma