Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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139 FXUS64 KBRO 241729 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1229 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Key Messages: - Extreme and Dangerous Heat Today through Saturday - High Rip Current Risk at local Beaches through Saturday - Small Craft Advisories on the Laguna Madre Today The heat is on and will stay on through Saturday and persist for the holiday weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories (that were issued yesterday remain in tact with today`s round of Heat indices to range from 110 to approx. 120F degrees. Another round of Heat Warnings and/or Heat Advisories are likely tomorrow with the 500mb ridge remaining in tact and the heat dome associated with it still sporting 850mb temperatures of 25-28C. The NWS Experimental Heat Risk remains at the Extreme Level (4 of 4) with plenty of sunshine today and Saturday and elevated ovenight heat indices increasing the probability of heat related illness and impacts for heat-sensitive populations and industries. This type of extreme heat will be very dangerous for anyone spending time outside this weekend. Taking the necessary precautions will be vital to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses. It is highly recommended to drink plenty of water, even if you do not feel thirsty, take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, and wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing. Local pressure gradient between surface high pressure over the Western Gulf and a thermal low over NE Mexico to maintain breezy to windy afternoons and breezy conditions overnight. 925-850mb layered winds of 20-30kts will translate to surface wind gusts of 30-35 knots slightly lower than Thursday. The stronger winds to spread over the coastal waters with a Small Craft Advisory issued for the Laguna Madre today and a High Risk of rip currents along area beaches today through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The BRO CWFA will generally remain on the northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered along the upper east coast of Mexico through the period. This will have the result of producing dry weather for a majority of the time. However, the passage of a few mid-level shortwaves along the top of the ridge will have the potential to produce isolated convection Monday night through Tuesday night over far western Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are forecast. A combination of Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will likely be needed across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. For Wednesday and Thursday, however, cooler high temperatures may result in these products not being needed for these days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Through 18z Saturday....As of this update, VFR-MVFR conditions (mainly due to haze restricting visibilities between 3-6 miles) were taking place at the TAF sites under sunny to mostly sunny skies. VFR ceilings with some MVFR visibilities should continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. As we shift into tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again over the area. During the day on Saturday, ceilings/sky conditions could improve/return back to VFR levels. However, MVFR visibilities (due to haze) looks to be an issue through the 18z TAF period, regardless of the ceilings. Southeast winds 10-20 kts look to continue through the 18z TAF period. Winds are expected to gust between 20-30 kts during the day. At night, wind gusts are expected to subside, however, it will still remain breezy at times with sustained winds between 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The enhanced pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico persist through Saturday. Surface ridge extending westward over the Gulf to combine with a thermal low over NE Mexico and S Texas to maintain moderate to fresh and occasional stronger periods of southeast winds and a moderate sea state. The strong winds support Small Craft Advisories along the Laguna Madre and Exercise Caution on the Gulf waters today and likely continuing into this evening and Saturday. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to possible Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 98 82 97 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 102 81 105 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 105 80 107 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 82 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 80 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>253-353. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ254-255-351-354- 355. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135. && $$ SHORT TERM...59-GB LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...23-Evbuoma