Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
355 FXUS64 KBRO 270843 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 343 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Pleasant weather conditions persist for Deep South Texas with slow improvement for the beach and Gulf waters. South Texas lies in between a closed low over the Central Mississippi Valley and a mid- level ridge across the Rockies and Central Plains. Warm to hot days and mild nights are in the offering through Saturday. Humidity levels will continue to run in the comfortable range with light northwest to north winds maintaining below normal dew points today with slow recovery Saturday as winds return out of the South. The southerly wind should result in temperatures being bumped up 3 to 5 degrees over today`s forecast maximums. Low to mid 90s today climb up into the mid to upper 90s for inland areas. Overnight lows Friday night right at normal with upper 60s to lower 70s. Residual long period swell from Hurricane Helene, now inland over Georgia, continues to produce minor tidal flooding and a high risk of rip currents. Coastal flood matrix continues to indicate tidal overwash in the advisory category today with swells/seas running 6-7 feet at 11-12 seconds and King tides running near 0.5 feet above normal. This high energy swell train should push water up near the dunes through the morning (high tide occurs at 3:24 AM) slowly receding this afternoon as the swell dampens out. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 A large 500mb low centered over the Middle Tennessee Valley initially, and will subsequently move northeast. Mid-level ridging over the Four Corners region Saturday evening is expected to flatten and expand briefly eastward over Deep South Texas through Midweek. This will result in relatively quiet weather across the region through Monday night with a dry airmass in place. Gulf moisture may also begin to increase early next week with isolated showers possible across the Lower RGV on Tuesday. Better rain chances are expected Wednesday into Friday as deeper moisture arrives. PWATs surge to over 2 inches by Wednesday night and steadily increase through the period. High temperatures will be mainly in the mid 90s through the forecast. Drier air will keep heat indices below 100 degrees and will support a minor heat risk through the period. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to near 70 most mornings. In addition, long range models suggest that an area of low pressure could develop over the western Carribean by the middle of next week. This system could potentially enter the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 VFR conditions and light winds are expected for all regional airports tonight and Friday. High clouds will be increasing from the south-southwest calm winds in the morning becoming north- northwest for the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Friday through Saturday...A long period swell from Hurricane Helene, currently moving over Georgia, will continue to direct a 6-7 foot swell at 11-12 seconds towards the lower Texas coast. Small Craft Advisories for the far offshore Gulf waters continue through 1 PM today. With Hurricane Helene moving well inland and very light northerly winds over the western Gulf, swells should slowly dampen out later later today. Fair conditions are expected Saturday. Saturday night through Wednesday...Generally favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. High pressure across the Gulf will maintain light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through Wednesday. A few showers will return to the forecast on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as moisture increases across the western Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 91 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 70 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 77 89 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451- 454-455. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170- 175. && $$ SHORT TERM...59-GB LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...59-GB