133
FXUS61 KBTV 240209
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1009 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a period of unseasonably warm and unsettled weather,
drier conditions will prevail across the region heading into
the weekend. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return
towards the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1008 PM EDT Thursday...No major changes to the forecast
tonight. Post-frontal mixing continues to bring sporadic wind
gusts to the region but these are expected to diminish over the
next few hours. These gusty winds have also mixed down a pocket
of drier air which has reduced dewpoints significantly over the
past few hours but these should steadily come back up as winds
diminish over the next few hours.

Previous Discussion...After a period of unseasonably warm and
fairly active weather, drier conditions will prevail across the
region in the wake of a surface cold front that pushed eastward
this morning. This afternoon into the evening will continue to
feature clear skies and sun. Heading into the overnight, the
quiet weather will continue with low temperatures in the 50s.

Friday is shaping up to be a beautiful day across the region,
featuring plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will warm into the
70s with a few spots in southern Vermont nearing 80, with dewpoints
in the 50s. A weak boundary will pass to the north, bringing a
slight chance for some showers near the international border,
although this feature looks to be moisture-starved. Friday night
will see some of the coolest overnight temperature we have seen in a
week or so, with lows dropping into the mid 40s to near 50, which is
normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into the weekend, dry weather is
generally expected, especially during the daylight hours where upper
level ridging will prevail. During Saturday night though, a weak
shortwave trough will traverse the area providing a chance for
showers will perhaps some embedded thunder with soundings showing a
little bit of elevated instability. All in all, it`s looking like a
pretty nice weekend with high temps in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and
low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Unfortunately, quiet weather won`t last
going into next week as a deep longwave trough looks to develop over
much of the eastern CONUS, with several potent shortwave troughs
digging through the forecast region. Memorial day begins dry, but as
low pressure over the Great Lakes deepens to around 990mb, shortwave
energy ahead of it will stream over the region on southwest flow
with showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely in the
afternoon. Surface- based instability isn`t off the charts so
currently thinking thunderstorms will be more of the garden variety
and not strong, but this will be the best chance for thunder for the
week. Showery conditions follow for Tuesday with weak ridging
potentially drying things out for late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
but another more potent shortwave and stronger surface front arrives
Wednesday afternoon. While chances for thunder are more limited with
this system, it appears to be much colder behind the frontal passage
with the potential for some sub-40 degrees lows Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period. Mostly clear skies with occasional
mid to high level deck will be seen over the next 24 hours with
no precipitation expected. Winds tonight will be from the SSW at
10 to 20 knots and may briefly weaken below 10 knots during the
overnight period. Winds will then quickly become gusty on Friday
with 15 to 25 knots from the west shifting to the WNW midday.
Gusty winds will continue into the evening before abating as
the sun sets.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Some ASOS and AWOS equipment have been having communications
issues resulting in missing observations from BTV/PBG/MVL/MPV
and some others. Technicians continue to troubleshoot the issue.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV