173
FXUS61 KBTV 261137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
737 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue into this morning, before tapering off
from northwest to southeast later in the day. Dry weather will
mostly prevail from tomorrow into the start of next week, though an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon. Temperatures
will remain a bit above climatological normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 631 AM EDT Thursday... Rain has spread back into the
region and there are a couple embedded thundershowers as well.
The back end is located over the ST. Lawrence Valley but it will
remain relatively stationary for a couple hours before picking
up speed and moving southeast. Temperatures have been relatively
stationary and they have actually risen slightly in the past
couple hours in some areas. Winds are still gusty over Lake
Champlain but they will begin to calm down in the next couple
hours. Overall, the forecast was in good shape and few edits
were made.


Previous Forecast...A shortwave trough is passing through
this morning and an associated surface low will bring periods of
rain. A southern stream low will be unable to phase with it, so the
rain will move out relatively quickly. Currently, rain is beginning
to fill back in and the steadiest/heaviest rain will fall late in
the night through about mid-morning. There will be just enough
elevated instability that a couple isolated thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. A 30-40 knot low- level jet is currently passing overhead
and it is leading to gusty winds in places, particularly on Lake
Champlain. However, relatively consistent precipitation is prevent
efficient mixing, so many areas are seeing relatively light winds
despite it. The low-level jet will move out this morning and winds
will diminish throughout the day. Beginning in the late morning, the
rain will taper off from northwest to southeast as an occluded front
moves through. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will dry
out quickly after the frontal passage. However, moist low-levels and
slight cold air advection will cause some lingering low clouds, and
an isolated shower is possible in northern areas behind the front.
Skies should at least partially clear tonight, but blocked flow may
keep them in some places. Boundary layer winds will also go light,
and with plenty of recent rainfall, fog development is likely in any
of the climatologically favored areas that clear out. Friday looks
mostly dry, though diurnal heating could cause an isolated shower in
the Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures will continue to be a bit above
climatological normals during this period, with low tonight in the
mid 40s to mid 50s, and highs tomorrow in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 AM EDT Thursday...Upper air pattern acrs the eastern CONUS
for late week into the weekend is rather complex with two closed
cyclonic circulations and a building ridge of high pres. Guidance
conts to indicate a dry weekend is anticipated with temps trending
back above normal, especially by Sunday into early next week. For
Friday night, still some uncertainty on areal coverage of fog
potential as some high clouds could impact our cwa from the south,
but given recent rainfall anticipate likely (60-70%) probability of
fog in favored areas. Lows generally in the lower 40s to lower/mid
50s on Friday night. High pres is building acrs the northeast CONUS
with dry conditions and comfortable temps on Sat. Progged 925mb
temps btwn 12- 14C support highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with
light winds. Little change is anticipate on Sat night with
additional fog possible, but still watching the potential for high
clouds and potential impact on areal coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Thursday...For Sunday into early next week very
quiet wx is anticipated with above normal temps has mid/upper lvl
ridge builds acrs southern Canada and northern New England. How
decaying mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic
interacts with approaching northern stream trof for midweek and
associated timing of precip is the challenge. For now given the
uncertainty on magnitude of digging northern stream trof and
strength of decaying trof to our south, have kept pops in the chc
(30-40%) range for now. Developing southerly flow wl help advect
warmer air into our cwa with progged 925mb temps btwn 14-16C on
Sunday and Monday, supporting highs well into the 70s. As the
gradient tightens ahead of approaching system for mid week a period
of much above normal temps for overnight lows is likely either
Monday or Tues night, depending upon frontal timing, before slightly
cooler temps arrive for mid to late week. By Weds/Thurs temps try to
return toward normal with modest low level caa behind sfc boundary.
Highs mainly in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday... Periods of rain will move through today.
The heaviest showers will briefly lower visibilities to MVFR,
though a few may be able to lower visibilities to IFR. Rain will
taper off from northwest to southeast during the day, ending at
MSS by mid- morning and RUT by late afternoon. Ceilings will
gradually rise today and most should be VFR by this evening. Fog
development is likely tonight in the climatologically favored
airports of MPV, SLK and EFK, though it will be possible at any
of the rest. Winds will be southerly this morning, before
gradually changing to the west during the day and into the
evening. Winds will go light tonight. LLWS was present at most
terminals overnight but it will weaken below the threshold
quickly this morning where it has not already.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect into the early morning, with
strong south to southeasterly winds between 15 to 30 knots. Wave
heights will range between 3-5 feet on the broad waters. Winds
will lighten during the day today, becoming more westerly
between 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Myskowski
MARINE... Team BTV