424
FXUS61 KBTV 261956
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system moves through tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing
rounds of rain, gusty winds, and a couple embedded thunderstorms.
There is a low risk of severe storms over northern New York. The
steady rain moves out Monday night but there will be a few chances
for showers mid and late week. Temperatures will generally be close
to seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Skies are currently mostly clear with only
some daytime cumulus present over the higher elevations. The cumulus
will dissipate this evening but clouds will quickly move in from the
west out ahead of a relatively strong storm system. There will be
periods of rain during the day on Monday and chances for a few
embedded thunderstorms, particularly over northern New York.
Instability will be low but there will be strong 0-6KM and low-level
shear so there is a low chance of severe thunderstorms, mostly over
the parts of St. Lawrence Valley. That is the area with the
strongest instability. A low-level jet will pass overhead during the
day Monday, bringing winds up to around 50KTs at 925 mb. There will
be some breaks in the rain when the strongest part of the jet will
be overhead, so there is the opportunity for some of the stronger
winds to mix to the surface. The wind direction will generally be
SSE so this favors areas over the northern Adirondacks seeing the
strongest winds, where gusts above 40 mph are possible. Steadier
rain arrives and the low-level jet exits in the evening, so winds
will calm down a bit. The cold front will move through Monday night
and will bring the heaviest precipitation. Overall, rainfall
amounts look to range from around a third of an inch over northern
areas to around an inch over southern areas. Areas that receive
heavier convective showers will see locally more. There is a low
risk of flash flooding where the strongest convective storms set up.
Therefore, the whole region is in a marginal excessive rainfall
outlook for a 5% chance of flash flooding. Behind the front Monday
night, there should be a break in the rain, but temperatures will
stay relatively mild. Lows should be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Troughiness will remain over our area for
Tuesday and Tuesday night as upper level trough lags behind surface
boundary which will push east of Vermont early Tuesday morning.
There will be a break in the precipitation chances Tuesday morning,
then increasing pops as we head into the afternoon hours with
vorticity swinging overhead. Showers will continue into the
overnight. Have a slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon in the
St Lawrence valley, then we lose surface based instability
overnight. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s in
Northern New York to upper 70s across the larger valleys in Vermont.
Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s,
coldest in the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...Expect another showery day on Wednesday as
upper trough still remains over the region. Some drier air will
finally work into the area behind departing upper trough on
Thursday. Thursday continues to look like the coolest day of the
period with highs only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s, with
breezy northwesterly flow. Models are depicting building ridge
towards the end of the week with an overall drying trend
anticipated. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals
headed into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...All terminals are currently VFR and they will
stay that way through this evening. Ceilings will form and gradually
lower overnight. MVFR ceilings will likely develop at MPV later in
the night and there is a chance they lower to IFR. Rain showers will
gradually overspread the region during the day tomorrow and the
heaviest showers could briefly lower visibilities to MVFR or
possibly IFR at any of the terminals. There is the chance for a
couple embedded thunderstorms, mostly at MSS or SLK. Winds will stay
light through the first part of the night before turning
southeasterly and increasing in the second part of the night. They
will continue to increase during the day tomorrow and gusts over
20KTs are possible at any terminal. LLWS should develop at all the
terminals tomorrow as well.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Myskowski