662
FXUS61 KBTV 190531
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
131 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the middle
of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region
with dry conditions persisting; temperatures warm well into the
70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday. Building heat
will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Remember, the temperature
of area lakes and rivers remains below 60 degrees which is
hazardous to those unprepared or unaware of the threat of cold
water shock.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 131 AM EDT Sunday...Main forecast challenge for the
overnight hours is sky cover as a marine layer continue to shift
into the region on southeast flow. Much of eastern VT is
covered with a thick blanket of low clouds now which will
inhibit any fog formation, and keep overnight min temps warmer
than previously thought. Clearer skies exist across northern New
York, but fog will be very limited based on little to no
rainfall yesterday and soundings showing a little bit of wind
just above the surface.

For Sunday/Sunday night quiet conditions continue with building
mid/upper lvl ridge, resulting in a dry and warm fcst after
morning clouds lift. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15- 16C
which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10
mph. Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br
given a day removed from precip and less potential for lows
dropping below cross over values. Lows generally in the
mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...Our warming trend continues on Monday.
Mostly likely high temperatures appear to range from 80 to 84 for
most locations with abundant dry air in the 700 millibar level and
above sliding through on westerly/northwesterly flow. There may be
scattered cumulus with moderately high 850 millibar moisture. As
surface based instability grows with daytime heating, sufficient
orographic lift should support spot showers and maybe a
thunderstorm, especially in the Adirondacks where a chance of
showers is indicated. Dry air entrainment and poor mid-level lapse
rates do limit the potential of thunderstorms. Very little spatial
coverage is expected if anything can fire due to lack of upper level
forcing or a surface boundary in the region. Monday night there will
be some increasing chances of showers towards daybreak associated
with a vigorous shortwave approaching from the central Great
Lakes. There are large timing differences with this system,
however, as it slides across the upper level ridge in our
region, so this part of the forecast is very uncertain at this
time. Modest southerly flow will keep temperature rather mild in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...A pretty active weather pattern
looks to develop, especially midweek. A mix of both heat and
thunderstorm potential exists for multiple days, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday. While a heat advisory may not be issued,
both the WBGT and experimental HeatRisk have continued to trend
higher, well into the moderate range, such that I expect heat
impacts will occur in our region. Compared to the previous
forecast, Tuesday has trended slightly less hot due to the
potential for thunderstorms during the daytime, while Wednesday
is now looking like the warmest day of the week with highs in
the upper 80s in most valley locations.

Tuesday is a sneaky severe thunderstorm day as the
aforementioned shortwave Monday night could provide very good
support for widespread convection if we see heat build ahead of
the upper level forcing. Otherwise, the best largest scale
severe weather potential is still indicated for Thursday.
However, looking at cluster analysis for the overlap of shear
and CAPE, global models are split. Out of the four most likely
scenarios, two suggest the cold front moves through too early in
the day to support severe weather, one scenario shows best
ingredients to our south, and one does favor our forecast area.
Behind the expected cold frontal passage, temperatures look to
return to near normal for the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Main aviation concern for the period will
be through the overnight hours as a thick marine layer continues
to shift into the region on southeast flow. Much of eastern
Vermont is now under this cloud deck with ceilings MVFR in
southeast VT which will likely push over the Green Mtn spine
into KRUT in the next few hours. Farther north feel ceilings
will remain VFR, and will also inhibit any fog formation. In
addition, fog is looking less likely at KSLK due to a little bit
of wind just off the surface. After 12-14Z, low clouds lift into
a fair weather cumulus deck which will build through the
afternoon and clear out after sunset. Winds overnight will be
light and variable, and trend SSW at 5-10kts through the day.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Lahiff