944
FXUS61 KBTV 300230
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1030 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather pattern is becoming established over Vermont and
northern New York. After some cooler conditions tonight through
Friday morning, a steady warming trend will begin. Fantastic
weekend weather is expected. Localized to isolated showers
activity will return with the work week as temperatures climb
into the 80s during the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1027 PM EDT Wednesday...Mainly clear skies and light
winds have led to temperatures dropping off pretty sharply
already. Some high clouds are spreading east from system to our
south, and could slow down the cooling. No big changes for the
update. Previous discussion follows.

Dry air is slowly winning out. Some stratocumulus remains, and
these should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.
Although there will be a few mid to high clouds streaming in
from a vort northeast from the Ohio River Valley. This poses two
questions for tonight. How low can we go in radiational cooling
limbo, and can we get some fog? The proverbial bar is set at
300-500 ft above the ground where 10 to 15 knot winds should
promote some level of mixing. Based on how cool this airmass is
following the warm, damp air mass and calm winds, decided to
lean on the colder side and add fog in the favorable river
valleys. It will be cold enough in the hollows of the
Adirondacks that some patchy frost could develop, but it appears
quite localized. Probabilistic data suggests there is a low
chance this could impact the Northeast Kingdom as well if they
radiate out better than currently forecast. We`ll see if SLK can
hit 32, but currently have 33 at the Adirondack Airport.

Elsewhere, mainly 40s are expected, followed by warming into
the mid 60s to lower 70s once again. It should be another
gorgeous day with a steady north wind around 10 mph on Thursday.
Thursday night looks like a repeat performance with 10 to 15
knot winds at 300-500 ft above the ground. So we`ll see how well
our weather stations do in their game of radiational cooling
limbo tonight as a persistence forecast will likely work best.
Though it may be a degree or two warmer. So once again, some
patchy frost will be possible in cold hollows of the Adirondacks
along with river valley fog as the sun rises Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday is shaping up to be a
beautiful day as upper level ridging and surface high pressure
build over the region, with some sunshine and dry weather
expected to round out the month of May. Daytime highs will be
pleasant, with temperatures in the upper 60s into the lower 70s
and dewpoints maxing out in the 40s. Heading into the overnight
hours, low temperatures will drop into 40s and low 50s, which is
near climatological normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...Upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will remain across the region heading into the
weekend, with quiet stretch of weather to start off June. The
ridge will begin to break down towards the middle of next week,
with increasing chances for showers by Tuesday with a warm front
lifting through the region. Temperatures will gradually warm
into early next week, with high temperatures climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will also see a
warming trend, with temperatures in the 40s/50s over the weekend
climbing into the 60s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Skies will become mostly clear overnight.
Light to terrain driven flow is expected tonight. Some fog may
develop in river valleys, but 10-15 knot winds at 300-500 ft agl
may prevent formation, and for now have just noted some BR at
EFK which I believe has the best chance of any fog development.
North to northwest winds increase to 6 to 10 knots beyond 13z
with mid clouds around 7000-12000 ft agl, mainly in southern
Vermont.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Haynes/Neiles