398
FXUS61 KBTV 020506
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
106 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will generally dominate
the regions weather through at least Wednesday with dry
conditions and warming temperatures expected. A weak disturbance
passing through aloft on Sunday will provide cloudier skies and
perhaps some sprinkles, but overall the next chance for any
appreciable rainfall isn`t until Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1014 PM EDT Saturday...Temperatures have dropped sharply
following sunset with pretty ideal radiational cooling set up as
only some high thin clouds are in place with light to calm
winds. Minimum temperatures overnight will bottom out in the
lower 40s to lower 50s, coldest in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom. Previous discussion follows.

A strong mid/upper level ridge will center over the Northeast
tonight continuing dry weather across the region. High clouds
will be on the increase though ahead of a moisture starved
shortwave trough which will track through the region Sunday
afternoon and night, providing mainly just an increase in cloud
cover, and perhaps a 10% chance for a sprinkle or very light
shower across the Adirondacks. Otherwise, variable temperatures
are expected again for the overnight hours the next 2 nights,
with lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s tonight, and
through the 50s Sunday night. Temps Sunday could warm a couple
of degrees warmer than today, though with thicker mid/high
clouds feel it will be about the same as today with highs in the
upper 70 to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...Heat continues to be the primary
focus early next week with afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s
outside of higher terrain. Mainly dry conditions will be
expected as ridging amplifies over the North Country. A few very
isolated showers will be possible over far northeastern Vermont
as a trough swings around the western periphery of a stalled
upper over the Gulf of Maine. Overnight lows will be mild, but
will provide relief with dew point temperatures being lower than
usual.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...Unseasonably warm temperatures are
strongly favored through Thursday with an omega high blocking
pattern likely persisting over the Northeast. Highs in the 80s
will be highly probable Tuesday and Wednesday while uncertainty
increases Thursday with models projecting a large trough to move
towards the Northeast. The biggest question remains whether or
not the next projected trough will be able to move into the
North Country by late Wednesday/Thursday, or if it will be held
back by the strong ridge resulting in a delay until Thursday
night/early Friday for increases in shower chances. Models have
a known bias with moving blocking patterns too quickly. Also,
this high has been quite dry, so it should take a little longer
to saturate the column to get rain to the ground. As such,
30-50% chances of showers were maintained through Thursday
before increasing chances above 50% by Friday when a secondary
wave would likely have more success into moving farther east.
Once showers do move in, temperatures will likely drop into the
70s, but unlikely to be lower since flow will remain
southwesterly. Heading into the next weekend, ensembles favor a
longwave trough over the region with the upper low stalling and
supporting continued shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions with light and variable
winds are expected through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Clay