894
FXUS61 KBUF 230809
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
409 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger early this morning
before a cold front crosses the area. Behind the passing cold front,
cooler and more comfortable temperatures expected into the weekend.
High pressure moving into the region will provide for fair weather
today and Friday. On and off periods of showers and thunderstorms
through the holiday weekend with Sunday expected to be mostly dry
and pleasant weather. Showers on Monday will linger into the middle
of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Currently some showers and thunderstorms are located across the
north country, with a few becoming briefly strong. A cold front has
crossed into WNY early this morning. Some additional showers just
out ahead and along the front are mainly focused over and east
of Lake Ontario.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue out ahead of the cold front
as it cross the rest of the area this morning. Out ahead of the
front instability values of around 500-1,000 J/kg are still in
place, including DCAPE values of 750-1,000 J/kg for areas southeast
& east of Lake Ontario. Showers will clear out for the most part
behind the passing front, though a narrow line of weak reflectivity
is following right behind the passing front, so additional brief
sprinkles can`t be ruled out.

Today, other than maybe a few linger showers/sprinkles early this
morning for the north country, conditions will be dry for the entire
area. Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast with
increasing sunshine as drier air moves into the region behind the
departing cold front. An elongated area of high pressure stretching
from Canada will also start to push into the region. A cooler, but
still above normal day today with afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 60s to near 80 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations
respectively.

Tonight, fair weather conditions expected to continue as high
pressure continues over the area and a ridge approaches from the
west. Clear skies and refreshing temperatures overnight in the low
to mid 50s expected for the entire area. Overnight winds will be
limited to around 5 mph out of the southwest.

Friday, fair weather conditions expected once again as the ridging
increases and the ridge axis starts moving into the far western
portions of the area by later in the day. Temperatures will warm
some over the western counties as warm air advection bumps
temperatures up into the upper 70s to low 80s. Farther east, where
warm air advection doesn`t start till later, afternoon highs will be
similar to today, with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s from
the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be dry and tranquil to start the long holiday weekend...as a
progressive ridge will pass over the Lower Great Lakes...while sfc
high pressure will nose south from Hudson Bay.

As the aforementioned ridge scoots off to our east Saturday and
Saturday evening though...a flat shortwave trough will accompany a
warm front that will likely generate some showers and possible
thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should take place between
late morning and sunset...right when most people have their outdoor
gatherings for the start of the holiday weekend.

A few leftover showers early Saturday night will then be supported
by a weak cold front that will follow through the region on the
heels of the previously mentioned warm front. The good news is that
the trend will be for notably nicer weather as we head into Sunday.

On Sunday...another wedge of high pressure will extend southwards
across the region. This should nearly guarantee fair dry weather
with comfortable conditions for outdoor activities including high
temperatures that will be largely in the 70s with minimal humidity.
This will prove to be the nicest day of the three day weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unfortunately...the end to the holiday weekend promises to be quite
unsettled. In fact...a longwave trough will become established over
the eastern third of North America to promote cooler weather with
frequent showers through the middle of next week.

A split flow will be in place as we open this period Sunday night...
as a robust southern shortwave and its attendant sub 1000mb sfc low
is forecast to cross the Upper Great Lakes. A warm front extending
to the southeast to the Upper Ohio valley will become active during
the course of the night...as a modest 35-40kt low level jet will
ride up and over the boundary to support some showers over our
region. The bulk of these showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
found over our western counties.

On Monday...Memorial Day...the anomalously deep storm system to our
west will push the warm front northwards across our region. Strong
frontogenetic forcing from this feature will result in fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Not the greatest scenario for
parades or other outdoor activities. The unsettled weather will
be accompanied by an increase in humidity...as Td`s should surge
into the mid 60s for many areas.

While the coverage and intensity of the shower activity should
diminish Monday night...courtesy of a mid level dry slot...a phasing
of the two jets should lead to a deep stacked storm system that
will be centered over southern Ontario. Subtle shortwaves and
waves of moisture will circulate around this late winter-like
feature to keep our area shrouded under plenty of clouds Tuesday and
Wednesday...while likely pops for showers will be in place. Great
weather for those growing new areas of grass.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers with some thunderstorms will be limited mainly to the north
country out ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorms
should remain east of KART, but some showers may cause brief
reductions in VSBY to MVFR levels through daybreak. Otherwise VFR
expected for most of the early morning with a brief passing shower
having minimal impact at the rest of the TAF sites. Brief lowering
of CIGs to MVFR will be possible across the higher terrain, such as
at JHW.

Today, any lingering showers in the morning for the north country
should move out of the area by mid-morning. Otherwise a quiet day
with fair weather for the rest of the area. VFR conditions expected
for all areas for the entire day. Winds out of the west to southwest
should remain at or below 15 mph, with some gusts to 20 mph
possible.

Tonight, VFR with fair weather for all TAF sites. Winds expected to
be 10 mph or less.

Outlook...
Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Mainly VFR
Monday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over Lake Ontario this
morning will cause some gusty winds through the early morning.
Southwest winds early this morning will shift to the west as a cold
front crosses the region. High pressure will build into the region
today through Friday, providing a gentle breeze. Winds will
generally remain at a gentle breeze or lighter through most of the
weekend as a shortwave trough crosses the area on Saturday and high
pressure moves back into the region on Sunday. There could be some
brief stronger convective related gusts on Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW