260
FXUS61 KBUF 230225
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1025 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area overnight bringing another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler more comfortable
weather can be expected Thursday into the first part of the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
There will be a few showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the
cold front, but most of the activity will be along or
immediately ahead of the approaching boundary. At 10 p.m. a
broken line of showers and storms extended roughly from Toronto
to Cleveland. There`s much less instability in place than there
was earlier today, but there`s still around 1000 J/Kg across far
Western NY and the Western Southern Tier. Also, the 00Z Buffalo
sounding shows a bit more wind shear than earlier today with 45
knots at 800 mb. This could support a few strong to severe
storms across far Western NY with chances diminishing further to
the east.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit to our east overnight
with some showers lingering into the first half of the Thursday
morning, mainly for areas east of Lake Ontario. Clouds will
decrease from northwest to southeast as drier air moves into the
region behind the departing cold front. A cooler, but still
above normal day on Thursday with afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 60s to upper 70s from the higher terrain to the lower
elevations respectively.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather expected Thursday night as a ridge approaches with the
region remaining in between synoptic systems on the north and
southeast sides. Lows on Thursday night will dip down to the low to
mid 50s across the entire area. Dry conditions continue Friday as
the ridge axis continue to slowly build over the region.
Temperatures will range from near 70 over the higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the lower
elevations south of Lake Ontario.

Friday night, the ridge will continue to slowly approach and cross
the region. Behind the passing ridge, a warm front approaching from
the Ohio Valley will start to increase the potential for showers
during the second half of the night. There is some timing
uncertainty among guidance with the speed of the ridge crossing the
region. Some models have the ridge moving through slower and showers
not moving in until later in the day on Saturday, while other
forecast guidance is a bit quicker with the showers moving into
western New York a few hours before daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be a pattern shift into next week as an upper level
trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes region. This will
bring a period of unsettled weather including the chance for showers
and thunderstorms and cooler weather towards mid-week.

Surface high pressure will lead to dry weather across the forecast
area Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday night and
showers with the chance for thunderstorms will move into the region.
An area of low pressure is forecast to track northwest of the
forecast area Monday through Monday night. The best chance for rain
will be Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across the
region. There is a risk of a few strong storms Monday, however
confidence is low due to high uncertainty in evolution of this
system. Confidence is higher that cooler air will move into the
region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel much cooler due to
the recent warm stretch, however temperatures will be only a few
degrees below normal.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and
Wednesday due to an upper low nearby. The best chance will be in the
afternoon through early evening.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move
through with the cold front overnight, then fair and dry
weather for late tonight and Thursday. Localized MVFR or lower
conditions in showers and thunderstorms possible tonight with
the cold frontal passage. Widespread VFR flight conditions on
Thursday.

Outlook...
Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest south to southwest winds will shift to the west and
northwest following the passage of a cold front overnight. Some
strong storms with gusty winds are still possible, mainly on
Lake Erie through the first half of the night. With the frontal
passage showers and storms will diminish from west to east
overnight. After that...surface high pressure will build into
the region for Thursday providing light winds and minimal wave
action as we head towards the Memorial day weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Apffel/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...AR/Apffel/TMA