041
FXUS61 KBUF 260011
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
811 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few spotty leftover showers will wind down this evening as high
pressure builds into the region. The high will then drift across our
area on Sunday and provide us with a pleasant middle of the long
holiday weekend. A complex storm system tracking across the Upper
Great Lakes will then bring rather unsettled weather into our region
for Memorial Day...when some strong thunderstorms and locally heavy
downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of this writing the shower activity from this afternoon has
completely exited our region. With broad/flat troughing still in
place aloft...still can`t entirely rule out a few additional
spotty showers through the early overnight hours...however the
potential for even these will wane from west to east over time
as surface-based ridging builds into our region.

The burgeoning surface ridge will also supply us with clearing skies
and light winds. With plenty of leftover low-level moisture
remaining in place from today`s convection...this should lead to the
development of areas of low stratus and/or fog overnight...with the
lower clouds and fog most likely across far western New York and the
Finger Lakes (where showers/storms were most prevalent and low level
moisture will consequently be richer).

On Sunday the surface ridge axis will slide eastward across our area
during the morning...before passing off to our east during the
afternoon. Renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the
dissipation of any low stratus and fog during the first half of the
morning...leaving behind increasing sunshine and pleasant weather
for the balance of the day. This will make for a superb afternoon
(and the best of the long holiday weekend) for outdoor activities...
with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern will become amplified as an upper level trough digs
into the Mid- Western States and Upper Great Lakes region
Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from
surface low pressure over Illinois will move from south to north
across the forecast area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move
into the region with PWATS over the 90th percentile for this
time of year. The first wave of showers will be associated with
the nose of a 40kt low level jet. The showers will move through
the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. There
will likely be a break across western NY Monday morning, however
destabilization will occur with daytime heating and dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a prefrontal trough
across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an approaching
cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower
Michigan. Relatively strong mid- level flow will be present as a
shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest.
Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some
strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move
northeast across the Finger Lakes region and into north central
NY into Monday evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for
the area. The moist airmass will also make for torrential
downpours and isolated flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall
amounts may exceed an inch especially east-southeast of Lake
Ontario. There will likely be drier air in the mid-levels across
western NY which may limit rainfall amounts.

The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall,
showers and storms will end from west to east across the region,
however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will
remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will
become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of
shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper
Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime
heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to
medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region
Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold
front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of
showers overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region
Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs
that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of
unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the
afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the
end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into
Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the
weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather
Friday to Saturday.

Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and
increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region tonight...bringing an end
to any spotty leftover showers. With low level moisture remaining in
place...the clearing skies and light winds attendant to the high
will also lead to the development of areas of fog and lower stratus
overnight...resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR conditions
through daybreak Sunday. The worst conditions will be most likely
from far western New York eastward into portions of the Finger
Lakes...where low level moisture will be the richest.

On Sunday...renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the
dissipation of any fog and low stratus during the first half of the
morning...followed by increasing amounts of sunshine through the
rest of the day. This will result in a return to widespread VFR
conditions areawide.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...Increasing clouds with scattered to numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms developing. Restrictions possible.
Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A few leftover spotty showers will continue to wind down from west
to east through the first half of tonight as high pressure builds
into our region...while winds will largely to be light to modest at
10 knots or less. With a moist airmass in place...clearing skies
could allow for some areas of fog to develop overnight...
particularly across Lake Erie...the Niagara River...and western Lake
Ontario.

On Sunday the axis of the high will slide across our area in the
morning...then off to our northeast during the afternoon. This will
result in light to modest winds turning east-northeasterly under 10
knots...with fair weather prevailing outside of any areas of
dissipating early morning fog.

More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing
southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly
component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the
15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed
during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be
possible Monday.

Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given
the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity.
This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the
lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...AR/JJR
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR/JJR
MARINE...AR/JJR