Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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196 FXUS61 KBUF 011754 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry and warm weather will follow for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quiet weather will continue through tonight as a mid level ridge across the region drifts to the east. High clouds will gradually increase from the west, limiting radiational cooling, bringing a milder night with overnight lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. A weakening shortwave trough will advance into the region Sunday bringing the chance for some showers. The showers will likely remain rather spotty during the morning, as lingering dry air will need to be overcome. Coverage should increase during the afternoon, but certainly will not be a wash out by any means as most guidance keeps the shower activity fairly scattered. Some meager afternoon surface based instability develops, so an isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out. Clouds will limit daytime warming some, with highs mainly in the 70s, except near 80 east of Lake Ontario which could benefit from a bit more morning sunshine. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Behind a shortwave trough showers will be exiting east and southeastward from our region Sunday night. Some patchy fog possible with a low dewpoint depression and light winds. Light flow over the region Monday with broad and very weak surface high pressure nearby. Monday should be dry, but a spot shower along any forming lake breeze boundary cannot be ruled out. It will be a bit warmer Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies aiding in afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows Monday night will drop back into the mid 50s, to lower 60s...with a light southeasterly flow behind the departing weak surface high limiting fog potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad mid and upper-level ridging extending from the southeastern states to New England at the start of this period will gradually give way to a negatively-tilted upper trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday...with this trough then likely to cut off into a closed low that will take up residence across our region Friday and Saturday. While the medium range guidance packages unsurprisingly continue to struggle with the details of this transition this far out...this will generally result in our weather becoming much more unsettled as we push through the middle and latter portions of the week...with initially above normal temperatures also settling back to near to slightly below average by Friday and Saturday. Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Wednesday the front flank of the approaching trough will start to approach far western New York as we push through the course of the day. Combined with daytime heating of our moderately humid airmass...this should allow for the development of some scattered showers and thunder- storms...with the greatest chances for these found from the Genesee Valley westward. Further east pcpn chances should diminish with increasing eastward extent... with it quite possible that the North Country could remain mainly dry. Otherwise notably above normal temperatures will continue for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid 80s across the lower elevations. Wednesday night and Thursday the elongating upper trough will continue to expand its way southeastward across the Great Lakes... with its attendant surface low over Northern Ontario likely pushing a weakening warm frontal segment across our area Wednesday night... followed by a prefrontal trough and trailing cold front between Thursday and Thursday evening. Consequently...pcpn potential looks to increase to the likely range (and likely the greatest levels of the period) later Wednesday night and Thursday in concert with the approach/passage of the above boundaries. Meanwhile a warm and humid Wednesday night will be followed by high temps pulling back some to the mid and upper 70s on Thursday due to the expected increase in cloud and precipitation coverage. Following the passage of this system`s cold front...notably cooler and less humid air attendant to the upper low will then overspread our region through the remainder of the week. This will result in daytime highs pulling back into the mid 60s to lower 70s for both Friday and Saturday...and nightly lows also settling back into the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile the presence of the upper level low/cool pool aloft will support the potential for additional scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday...with chances for these generally peaking each afternoon with daytime heating/increased diurnally-driven instability. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR prevailing through at least 12Z Sunday, with high pressure and a mid-level ridge maintaining rain-free weather. High clouds will increase through tonight. The approach of a weakening shortwave trough will bring some scattered showers Sunday, mainly after 16z. Cigs across western New York will lower to near 6K feet by 18z Sunday, with cigs possibly lowering to MVFR by late Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers. Thursday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Quiet weather the rest of this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night through Monday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...TMA MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA